Alternative Investing Report - October 3, 2025

*as of 10/2; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 mark, rising by more than 5% in the past two days and nearly 10% in the past week as it approaches a new all-time high. Other major coins like Ethereum (+14.1%), Solana (+18.6%), and Cardano (+11.4%) have all registered double-digit percentage gains in the past week, and the market as a whole is up around 10% in that time.

➨ TAKEAWAY: There were worries that a government shutdown would lead to a dip in crypto prices, but it’s had the opposite effect as investors now believe that the shutdown makes interest rate cuts more likely. Traders are continuing to target riskier assets, and that is trickling down to memecoins, many of which are up significantly in the past week, an indication of the market’s frothiness. Expect volatility in all markets throughout this shutdown, but that will be amplified in crypto, which could see wild price swings in the short-term.

Vincent CEO Eric Cantor and ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, EquityZen's Atish Davda, and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund explore the evolving landscape of private markets and venture capital, focusing on how individual investors can navigate these opportunities. The panel discusses emerging pre-IPO companies, innovations in fintech, national security, and the future of space exploration, as well as the potential of quantum computing. Insights are shared on investment strategies, product risks, and the importance of understanding market dynamics. Don’t miss it.

📊 ADP jobs report: With the official government jobs report not coming due to the government shutdown, the just-released ADP private jobs report now carries more importance. While it may not be as accurate as the official one, the report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, the worst showing since early 2023. Additionally, the August number was revised from an increase of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000, for two poor months in a row.

🤖 OpenAI finalizes share sale: The AI startup is now the most valuable private company in the world after its $6.6 billion secondary share sale came at a valuation of $500 billion. The last fundraising valuation came in April at $300 billion, so employees saw a significant gain in this sale.

🏢 Strong results for student housing: The sector saw a decade-high 96.5% of beds pre-leased nationally, well above 2024 levels and a strong sign for college-town markets.

🍷 Wine auction: An auction at Zachys featuring a number of 19th century Bordeauxs fetched more than $11 million in total sales, around four times greater than the pre-sale estimate. The top lot was a magnum of 1870 Château Lafite Rothschild that sold for $387,500, five times the pre-sale estimate of $75,000.

🏡 Starter homes in demand: Sales of homes in the 5th-35th percentile in price grew by 3.8% year-over-year while sales of more expensive homes declined nationwide, as buyers prioritized affordability.

💵 PE fundraising struggles: Q3 saw private equity fundraising continue to fall, though the average deal value grew and exit activity rose, indicating a potential turnaround for a sector that has been lacking liquidity.

Monday: 🎨 Hong Kong auctions, 📊 Inflation report
Tuesday: 🪙 Vanguard & crypto, 🏢 CRE prices rise
Wednesday: 🏡 Housing prices, 🤖 AI Safety law
Thursday: ❌ Government shutdown, ⚾ Babe Ruth rookie card

Have a great weekend!