Alternative Investing Report - October 2, 2025

*as of 10/1; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

As of yesterday, the U.S. government has officially shut down, as Congress could not agree to a short-term spending bill. While many government services will continue to run (such as mail, law enforcement, airport security), many that impact the global markets will not. As long as the shutdown continues, there will be no job reports, inflation reports, or any kind of economic indicators that are produced by the government, which could affect the October Fed meeting. SEC employees will mostly be furloughed, so do not expect any IPO activity while the shutdown remains in place. Most mortgages are government-insured, and those will see processing delays, and federal assistance to renters will also be affected.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Depending on how long the shutdown lasts, there could be significant effects on the public and private markets. For example, the last shutdown in 2018-19 caused a slowdown in the housing market. The reaction from the public markets was muted, with stocks actually closing higher on the day after futures had dropped overnight. Crypto had a big day and gold also rose in value as foreign investors avoided U.S. assets. The last shutdown was for 35 days, and there seems to be a large gap in negotiations between the parties, so investors should expect a bumpy ride ahead.

Vincent CEO Eric Cantor and ARK Invest's Cathie Wood, EquityZen's Atish Davda, and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund explore the evolving landscape of private markets and venture capital, focusing on how individual investors can navigate these opportunities. The panel discusses emerging pre-IPO companies, innovations in fintech, national security, and the future of space exploration, as well as the potential of quantum computing. Insights are shared on investment strategies, product risks, and the importance of understanding market dynamics.

🤖 Cerebras fundraise: The AI chipmaker raised $1.1 billion at a $8.1 billion valuation, just more than double its last valuation of $4 billion in 2021. The company said it still intends to go public eventually, having initially filed for an IPO last year.

⚾ Babe Ruth rookie card: One of only ten graded copies of the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth card is up for auction at Heritage later this month and carries a $7 million estimated price tag after last selling for $7.2 million in December 2023.

🚀 Navan IPO: The business travel platform is reportedly looking to raise $750 million in its upcoming IPO, which is slated to happen sometime this month.

🎨 Christie’s leads the way: The auction house brought in $1.5 billion in art sales in the first half of the year, only a 1.9% drop from the year before, whereas Sotheby’s suffered a 14% decline and Phillips a 24.5% decline.

🏡 Luxury sales decline: While luxury home sale prices rose by 3.9% year-over-year, the volume of sales fell by 0.7% to the lowest August level since at least 2013.

💵 JP Morgan ETF: The Wall Street bank filed with the SEC to include private credit assets in its Total Credit ETF at an allocation of up to 15% of the total portfolio.

It’s been a talking point in Hollywood for decades now (anyone else remember the 2002 movie Simone?) but technology has evolved far enough to create AI actors that can almost pass as the real thing. Actors who never age, always do what they’re told, and can do all their own stunts. The AI “actress” Tilly Norwood made a splash this week when her (its?) creator Particle6 CEO Eline Van Der Velden claimed that a number of talent agencies are looking to sign Norwood. Setting aside the queasy implications around Norwood appearing to be a teenage girl, there is something unsettling about a computer creation trying to mimic human emotion. Naturally, real, human actors are not taking the news well, but Norwood is likely the first of many, especially if human audiences are okay with watching AI creations.