Alternative Investing Report - October 1, 2025

*as of 9/30; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

U.S. housing prices declined in July, according to both major benchmarks - the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the FHFA House Price Index. Both indices recorded a 0.1% decline in prices, with Case-Shiller showing a 1.7% gain year-over-year, and FHFA gaining 2.3%. The metro area with the highest yearly gain according to Case-Shiller was New York City, while the worst performing metro was Tampa.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It is undeniable that the housing market is in a slump - the Case-Shiller annual gain was the lowest in a decade, and the FHFA annual gain is half of what it was over the previous twelve months. High mortgage rates over the past few years have greatly impacted demand, and many sellers cannot continue to wait, leading to more inventory on the market. However, there is some optimism that rate cuts and lower construction rates could rebalance the market and lead to better price growth in 2026.

In this episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Siren CEO and founder Nicole Paulk about revolutionizing cancer treatment and the current state of the biotech market.

❌ Government shutdown: As of midnight, the U.S government has shut down after the Senate failed to agree on a spending bill. It is unclear how long the shutdown will last and what effects it will have on the markets, but we will explore that more in tomorrow’s issue.

🤖 California AI safety law: In a first for the U.S., Governor Gavin Newsom signed into law a bill that will require AI developers to disclose their safety and security protocols among other new regulations. Major AI and tech companies have been mostly silent, though Anthropic publicly backed the measure, and most people agree that the emerging industry does need to be regulated in some way.

🚀 Biotech funding drops: VC investment into the biotech sector is at $16.6 billion so far this year, putting in on pace to decline from last year and potentially be the worst funding year since 2016. The sector has only captured 8% of all VC dollars this year, the lowest share in at least twenty years.

🏀 Kobe jersey sale: The jersey from the first NBA regular season game in which Kobe Bryant wore the number 24 sold for $889,000, falling short of seven figures, but still driving a strong result for a jersey that original sold for $10,875 in 2006.

🏢 AI increasing office demand: The rise of the AI industry has led to a resurgence in office leasing in tech hubs San Francisco and New York, with the former seeing office demand more than double in the last year.

🎨 Top ten living U.S. artists: An in-depth look at the top-selling living American artists, led by Jeff Koons, Ed Ruscha, and Christopher Wool.

🪙 SEC considering blockchain stock trading: In another step towards the merging of the equities and crypto markets, the SEC is developing a plan to allow tokenized shares of stock to be traded on crypto exchanges.

🚜 Farmland values on the rise: The average value of farmland increased by 4.3% year-over-year, with Western farmland remaining the most expensive in the country on a per-acre basis.

Last week we featured Aster, which had an incredible 2,300% gain in its first week of existence, and warned that the price was likely to come back down. While it is still up significantly from its debut price, it has given back around 35% of its peak value and declined more than any token in the top-100 by market cap in the last week. It is the native token of the Aster decentralized exchange on the Binance Smart Chain, which has continued to see its daily trading volume increase. One issue on the horizon is an impending airdrop of reward tokens which could increase selling pressure. The rewards are based in part on using the exchange, so if the price continues to drop, the rewards become less valuable, and activity on the exchange could drop, putting the token in a downward cycle that will be difficult to escape.