Alternative Investing Report - June 26, 2025

*as of 6/25; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

A mid-year look at the state of the VC market shows that startup valuation growth has rebounded in 2025. Much of that is due to AI-related companies, which are seeing their valuations grow at more than twice the rate of non-AI startups. The IPO market has been slow, but eight U.S. companies have listed with valuations of more than $1 billion, with IPO activity increasing in the last month. An all-time high 36% of M&A transactions have seen a VC-backed startup as the buyer, reflecting a shift in the market dynamics. VC fundraising has fallen so far in 2025, with just $23.3 billion raised so far compared to $87.8 billion last year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While we haven’t yet seen the major turnaround many investors were hoping for in 2025, the VC ecosystem has been relatively stable given the general economic and geopolitical volatility the year has seen so far. AI continues to be responsible for propping up the asset class, accounting for most of the price growth and mega funding rounds in the sector. Liquidity issues still remain and have affected fundraising, with the growing secondary market becoming more important as exit activity stalls.

Sotheby’s held its Summer Sports Classic auction last night, headlined by the $1.75 million sale of a game-worn Steph Curry jersey that was matched to 25 games, including the one where he hit his first career three-pointer. Other notable items were a LeBron James game-worn 2016 NBA Finals jersey that went for $952,500 and a Shohei Ohtani bat signed by the 2024 World Series Champion Dodgers that sold for $114,300, nearly four times the pre-sale high estimate.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The Curry sale exceeded expectations and shows the power of a truly unique item, while a number of items tied to legends like Tom Brady, Tiger Woods, and Lionel Messi also posted strong results. On the flip side, lower-tier items such as a number of game-worn soccer jerseys for players relatively unknown in the U.S. all went for significantly below estimates. Overall, an auction house like Sotheby’s holding a marquee sports memorabilia auction at is a strong sign for the collectibles market.

🏡 New home sales fall: While existing home sales grew in May, new home sales declined a whopping 13.7% monthly and 6.3% year-over-year. On the bright side, the median sales price is up by 3% year-over-year.

🎨 London contemporary auction: Sotheby’s Modern & Contemporary auction brought in $84 million over 48 lots, at the midpoint of the pre-sale estimate, with 30% of the total coming from just 7 lots by female artists.

🪙 Crypto considered for mortgages: The US Federal Housing Finance Agency ordered mortgage companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to consider an applicant’s crypto assets when evaluating mortgage applications.

🤖 New AI research institute: A co-founder of the AI startups Perplexity and Databricks is putting up $100 million to create the Laude Institute, which will make investments into companies and labs structured like grants.

💵 Private retail funds growing: The market for private funds for retail investors had grown by 60% since the end of 2022 to a total of $350 billion, highlighting the growth of alternative investing.

🚀 Snyk buys AI company: The cybersecurity startup acquired the AI security company Invariant Labs for an undisclosed price to boost its own AI security tools.

Is AI making us dumber? A recent MIT study found that using ChatGPT to write SAT-style essays harms critical thinking skills, with ChatGPT users showing low brain engagement and neural connectivity compared to those who did not use AI at all. When the ChatGPT users then had to rely on their original thought processes to write a final essay, they performed poorly, indicating that their AI use had atrophied their writing skills. These results are not particularly surprising, and it is concerning as students continue to lean on AI to do their schoolwork. More negative studies like this could create a greater stigma against AI usage and become a roadblock to the industry’s growth.