Alternative Investing Report - April 18, 2025

*as of 4/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

U.S. home prices are projected to fall 1.7% in the next twelve months, according to Zillow’s updated forecast model, which had projected 2.9% growth at the start of the year. Actual price growth as of March is still positive at 1.2% year-over-year and 0.2% monthly. But the latter number represents the worst March since 2018. That slowdown is part of why the forecast is now bleaker moving forward, paired with a rise in supply - new listings are up 9% and overall inventory is up 19% year-over-year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Supply going up without demand also rising could very well lead to a value contraction in the housing market. Zillow expects the Sun Belt - particularly Louisiana and Florida - to see the biggest drops in value, and Northeastern markets to be the most resilient. Keep in mind that this is only one forecast - Fannie Mae projects home prices to rise by 1.7% this year, and Wells Fargo has it pegged at 3%.

Blackstone’s new private credit fund is launching in May under the ticker BMACX, and with a minimum investment of $2,500. Investors will be able to enter the fund daily, and it is expected that 5% of the fund’s net asset value will be allowed to be withdrawn each quarter.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Blackstone continues to aggressively court retail investors and open up private markets. For investors, it is another avenue to access private credit investing, which has been a bright spot over the past few years. However, the asset class has been seeing average yields drop and the current economic situation could lead to more defaults, though the assets are relatively insulated from daily market volatility.

🤖 OpenAI making moves: The AI startup is reportedly spending $3 billion to acquire Windsurf, an AI coding tool, which was valued at $2.85 billion in February. OpenAI is trying to stay ahead of its competitors. It reportedly also considered buying Windsurf’s competitor, Cursor.

🚜 Farmland market update: The market for farmland was flat or slightly negative in most states in the past year, and the volume of sales also ticked down as commodity prices fell and expenses grew.

🪙 Mining firms liquidating: Publicly traded Bitcoin miners sold 40% of their mined coins in March, the highest proportion since October, as mining profitability decreased. Increased expenses due to tariffs are also likely to lead to increased selling pressure from miners going forward.

🚀 Europe Q1 recap: Total deal value for European VC hit almost €17 billion in Q1, a 4.9% quarterly increase, but deal count, VC fundraising and exit activity continued to decline.

🎨 Christie’s auctioning a $30M Monet: The French painter’s 1891 “Peupliers au bord de l’Epte, crépuscule” is expected to fetch between $30 million and $50 million as part of Christie’s May evening sale.

❗ NFT tax fraud: A Pennsylvania man who made millions off trading assets of CryptoPunks, the NFT collection, pleaded guilty to false income tax returns by underreporting his income by $13 million. He now faces six years in prison - a good reminder to report those gains.

Monday: 📊 Fund performance, 💰 Gold price surge
Tuesday: 🚀 VC secondary discounts, 🏡 Luxury RE market
Wednesday: 🚀 Fintech trends, 🏢 Apartment demand
Thursday: 🐻 Bear market, 🚀 VC liquidity

Have a great weekend!