Alternative Investing Report - April 14, 2025

*as of 4/13; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Private equity posted the highest overall return of any fund strategy in 2024, surpassing private credit, which dropped to third place and had a negative return in Q4. Secondaries led the way in Q4 with a strong 3.55% return, while Funds of funds brought up the rear at -1.95%. Venture capital seems to have recovered after hitting its bottom, posting its second consecutive positive quarter after 9 of the previous 10 had been negative.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Overall, private market strategies performed better last year than the two years prior, but saw a downturn in Q4. Private credit returns have fallen from their peak due in part to greater competition and lower deal activity. The economic situation has changed significantly, though, since the end of 2024, and the Q1 numbers that will be released in summer will be a better gauge of how these strategies are performing under new circumstances.

The price of gold hit another all-time high, reaching more than $3,240 per ounce before falling back slightly at the end of the week. The precious metal gained 7% in the past three trading sessions, the biggest rise in value since March 2020 at the dawn of the pandemic. There were bids for more than 400,000 ounces of gold in Thursday’s daily benchmark auction, the most demand since September 2019.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Gold tends to perform well in times of economic and global uncertainty, as investors flock to more stable assets - an example being its performance in March 2020. The precious metal is up 11% in the last month and more than 40% in the last year. With the dollar weakening, and markets likely to be volatile for the near future, gold could continue to perform well.

🤖 Thinking Machines big seed: The AI startup founded by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati is targeting a massive $2 billion seed round at a valuation of at least $10 billion, despite having no product or revenue.

🚀 Tariffs and VC: With economic uncertainty and volatility raging, and the chances of recession growing, the VC ecosystem could be hit especially hard as fundraising becomes even more difficult and exits become rarer.

🪙 Crypto market rebound: The rollercoaster of the past few weeks continued, with Bitcoin back up over $84,000, Ripple up 25%, Solana up more than 35%, and the crypto market as a whole up around 10% for the week.

🎨 Rembrandt drawing: A 17th century drawing of a lion by the Dutch master is expected to fetch tens of millions of dollars, and could become the most expensive artwork on paper ever sold when it goes up for auction next year.

🏡 Buying demand up, for now: Markers of homebuying demand increased at the start of the month, but pending sales are still down 1.1% year-over-year, with rising mortgage rates and tariff uncertainty likely to cut into demand and sales going forward.

🚜 California farmland values declining: Weaker commodity prices and water usage issues have caused the price per acre of farmland across the state to plummet in value over the past year.

Tuesday: Tax day in the U.S. - either file your taxes by then, or file for an extension; Sotheby’s Prints and Multiples auction in New York.

Wednesday: U.S. retail sales, Homebuilder confidence index reports released; Christie’s Prints and Multiples auction in New York.

Thursday: Housing starts, building permits numbers released.

Friday: Good Friday - markets will be closed.

Saturday: The NBA playoffs begin.

Sunday: Easter Sunday.