Alternative Investing Report - April 11, 2025

*as of 4/10; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

Global art sales dropped by 12% in 2024, the second consecutive year of decline that has seen the market shrink from $68.1 billion in 2022 to $57.5 billion last year. The drop in sales cut across all geographic regions, but most notably, the Chinese market saw a 33% decline in sales. Contemporary art struggled, with dealers seeing an 11% drop in sales, and auction houses seeing a 36% decline. However, the overall total volume of transactions actually increased last year by 3%.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The data shows that overall demand for art hasn’t gone anywhere, but that the top end of the market is responsible for the decline in overall sales. Sales of artwork over $10 million fell 39%, but sales below $50,000, and in particular under $5,000, saw substantial increases. This indicates that the market is widening and new buyers are entering the fray, but high-end buyers are backing away in the face of economic uncertainty.

On April 9, Slava Rubin and Jan-Erik Asplund discussed Klarna, the global payments company that was getting set to IPO at a $15B valuation. They talked about the crowded competitive landscape, how market conditions have affected the possible IPO, and what lies ahead for the Swedish fintech company. This recording is exclusively available to AIR Insiders.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of inflation, dropped 0.1% in March, and the 12-month rate now sits at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at a 2.8% annual rate in March, the lowest level in four years. Both the CPI and core CPI readings came in lower than expected, but the response from markets was hard to parse as things remained volatile due to the ongoing trade war.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The report showed that inflation is getting closer to the Fed’s target rate of 2%, but the expectation is that next month’s report will reflect the new tariff policy which is likely to lead to a significant rise in inflation. The Federal Reserve next meets in May, before the April CPI report is released, and betting markets and traders now expect that it will hold rates steady.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Vincent founder Slava Rubin talks with Worth Media Group Chairman and 1-800-FLOWERS.COM founder and Chairman Jim McCann about diversifying across alternatives, scaling to a public company, and being curious.

📉 Dollar weakens: Primarily as a result of our trade policies, the U.S. dollar had its biggest drop since 2022 and hit a new yearly low, having fallen nearly 7% against a index of global currencies. This decline also comes as global demand for U.S. government bonds has fallen dramatically and global investors turn to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc as alternatives.

🪙 New SEC chair confirmed: Crypto-friendly attorney Paul Atkins was officially confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be the new head of the SEC, and he has promised to work with Congress on establishing a rational regulatory framework for the industry.

💵 Secondary activity could spike: As investors and firms seek liquidity during the ongoing market volatility, many are looking to sell secondary shares of private credit holdings, some at a discount.

🏢 San Francisco office market: One of the cities hardest-hit by the pandemic, San Francisco office leasing just hit a 10-year high, as demand for top-end office space grows and the tech recovery continues.

🚘 Gretzky’s Rolls-Royce: A 1994 Rolls-Royce Corniche IV once given to hockey great Wayne Gretzky when he broke the all-time goals record - itself recently broken by Alexander Ovechkin - is up for auction with a pre-sale estimate of just under $900,000.

🤖 Artisan Series A raise: The provocative AI agent startup Artisan raised a $25 million Series A as the AI sales development representative (SDR) market continues to expand.

Monday: 📉 Market crash, 🏡 Vacation rentals
Tuesday: 🏢 Tariffs & Retail RE, 🍷 Wine auction sales fall
Wednesday: 🪙 DOJ crypto unit disbands, 🏢 Build-to-rent
Thursday: 📈 Tariff pause, 💵 Private credit outlook

Have a great weekend!