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Happy Friday. Slava Rubin gives us an investing pick, Jensen Huang resigned, Bitcoin dipped below $70,000, and existing home sales hit a 16-year low. Let’s dive in!
🎤 Listen: To the latest episode of Smart Humans, where Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund discuss why nuclear and alternative energy have become compelling sectors in Pre-IPO investing.
This issue is brought to you by Kalshi - hedge your risks.
📈 DAILY MARKETS
✅ PICK OF THE WEEK
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Current share price: $166.19 ($4.01 trillion market cap)
Nvidia had its biggest 10-day drop in four years, creating a huge buying opportunity
The forward multiple on price-to-earnings is around 10, which is a massive discount
A change in CEO does not change the fact that everybody wants GPUs
I targeted it at $159 per share, monitor to see if it drops back to that level
Partner
The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.
👨🏫 TODAY'S EXPERT
Slava Rubin was co-founder and CEO at indiegogo in addition to being co-founder at Vincent, co-founder at Nillion and co-founder and Managing Partner of Humbition, an early stage venture fund. He is also currently a member of the board of NYSE traded (WSO) Watsco Inc.
🎤 PODCAST
In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Vincent's Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund discuss why nuclear and alternative energy have become compelling sectors in Pre-IPO investing. Featuring Commonwealth Fusion Systems, TerraPower, X-energy, Helion Energy, and more, they explore the technologies, market forces, and capital driving the next generation of energy companies, and why investors are paying close attention.
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🤖 Jensen Huang resigns: Nvidia’s CEO stepped down as a result of his much-publicized extramarital affairs, one with an alleged Chinese spy and one with a subordinate. The company’s stock fell sharply when the market opened but recovered to only lose 4.3% on the day.
🪙 Bitcoin plummets: The cryptocurrency fell below $70,000 for the first time since August, dropping more than 6% in the past day. The crypto market as a whole has struggled recently, with many major tokens — including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Zcash — down more than 10% in the past week.
🏡 Existing home sales crater: Existing home sales fell 5.5% last month and are down 8.8% year-over-year, falling to their lowest level in 16 years. Unsold inventory now represents 5.1 months worth of supply, up from 4.4 months a year ago.
🏢 Vacancy rates fall across CRE: Industrial, office, and retail have been seeing positive rates of net absorption this year, while multifamily outside of the Sun Belt has also performed well. Still, rising interest rates are likely to lead to rising cap rates, depressing property values going forward.
🚀 Unicorns selling at discount: There were 12 unicorns that had exits in Q3 that had valuations that were at least two years old, and 10 of those sold for a discount, with a staggering median discount of 72.8%. This is partially because companies that are struggling are more likely to sell, but the number is a reminder than valuations can go stale quickly.
🎨 NYC Art Week: In advance of next week’s major New York fall art auctions, galleries and museums across the city are holding exhibitions and events. The public can also go to the major auction houses and see the artwork that will be auctioned, including paintings by Van Gogh and Cezanne expected to sell for more than $100 million each.
📝 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Monday: 🚀 IPO market slows, 📊 Strong jobs report
Tuesday: 🤖 AI fundraises, 🚀 Wonder Group IPO
Wednesday: 📊 CPI report, 🤖 Anthropic IPO
Thursday: 🤖 Anthropic investor briefing, 🏢 Industrial absorption increasing
Have a great weekend!
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