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It’s Veterans Day - our thanks to all that have served. Inflation was higher than expected last month, Anthropic’s IPO is coming soon, luxury housing prices are falling, and tZero is going public. Let’s dive in!
🎫 Attend: At 12 PM ET, our investor briefing on the highly anticipated Anthropic IPO, which could be the biggest public offering in history.
This issue is brought to you by Kalshi - hedge your risks.
📈 DAILY MARKETS
📊 CPI REPORT
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose 0.4% in October, higher than expected, with no annual rate reported as last year’s data was uncollected due to the government shutdown. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy costs, was up 0.3% in October, also above expectations. Both the equities and crypto markets were down modestly yesterday, partially because of the higher-than expected inflation results.
➨ TAKEAWAY: With the labor market in a relatively strong place, and inflation still well above the Fed’s 2% target, expect a rate hike from the Fed next month. The CME FedWatch tool now pegs the odds at 100%, with the only question whether it will be a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point hike. The latter was proposed by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and FedWatch puts a 11% chance of that happening. Either way, higher rates are coming, and investors should keep that in mind when making any decisions through the rest of the year.
Partner
The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.
📺 UPCOMING EVENT
Join Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund today (Wednesday) for a closer look at AI giant Anthropic before its anticipated IPO. The discussion will cover the company’s business, valuation, growth, and competitive positioning, while exploring the capital flows and market dynamics surrounding its public debut. The session will also evaluate available financial data and the long-term market opportunity ahead. And there will be time for investors to ask the hard questions.
Tomorrow at 12 PM ET
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🤖 Anthropic IPO: The AI giant is likely to go public next Thursday, November 19, and it is offering 825 million shares at a price range between $70 and $78 per share, which would net $64.3 billion at the high end, falling short of SpaceX’s record-breaking IPO. Anthropic’s valuation at the high end would be $1.4 trillion, below earlier reports of $2 trillion, but still well above its last valuation of $965 billion in May.
🏡 Luxury thresholds falling: The 90th percentile of U.S. housing prices, the threshold to be considered “luxury” housing, is down 2.3% annually, while the “ultra-luxury” 99th percentile is down 6.2%. Only 12 of 43 metro areas tracked saw increases of 1% or more, led by two Florida markets.
🚀 tZERO going public: The tokenization firm - whose CEO Alan Konevsky was a Smart Humans podcast guest - is planning to go public early next year in a $350 million SPAC deal, and will trade on the NYSE with the ticker TZRO.
🪙 NYSE picks Avalanche: The upcoming tokenized equities platform that is being developed by ICE, the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company, has picked the Avalanche blockchain to be the “core ledger technology” for the exchange. The token rose in value around 5% on the day while the crypto market as a whole fell.
🤖 Applied Compute fundraise: The open-source model AI startup raised $350 million at a $3.25 billion valuation, more than double its $1.3 billion valuation from April. The company also announced that its annual recurring revenue has exceeded $100 million.
💵 LPs still want private credit: A recent survey of private wealth investors found that 56% of limited partners feel that they are under-allocated to the private credit sector, and are looking to increase their investments despite the risk of rising defaults.
🪙 CRYPTO MARKET MOVER
Coin: XRP (XRP)
Price: $1.05
Price change last 7 days: -17.4%
In week where the crypto market as a whole lost around 7% of its market value, the biggest decline among major coins came from XRP, the native token of the XRP Ledger — a blockchain closely associated with the company Ripple. XRP is down 25% in the past month and a whopping 56% in the past year, and is back around its lowest levels of 2026 after a brief recovery in September. Its spot ETFs have seen net outflows, perhaps signaling a decline in investor demand as it has fallen at a quicker pace than the rest of market in this extended downturn.
