Alternative Investing Report - September 18, 2025

*as of 9/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since December, dropping the benchmark lending rate by a quarter-point. It also indicated that two more quarter-point cuts could be coming in the two remaining meetings this year. The market had largely priced in this cut, and stocks had mixed results, with the Dow up but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. The crypto market reacted more favorably, with Bitcoin flat, but many prominent altcoins seeing gains.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While the rate cut was expected, the bigger news was the possibility of future rate cuts this year, with CME’s FedWatch tool now putting the odds of two rate cuts above 80%. Mortgage rates could fall further in anticipation of those cuts, and other asset classes that perform better in a lower interest rate environment could also benefit.

The newest construction data pointed to a sharp decline in activity across all stages, as growing inventory has discouraged homebuilders. New single-family housing starts fell to their lowest level in two and half years, falling 11.7% year-over-year, while multifamily housing starts fell 11.0% monthly but were up 15.8% year-over-year. Building permits hit a two-year low, falling by 11.1% year-over-year, while housing completions were down 8.4% annually.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It may take awhile to show up in the current market, but it does appear that both overall supply and new housing supply will decrease in the long-term, which combined with lower mortgage rates, could shift the market back towards sellers. The lack of future projects could also push up rents, particularly in the areas where starts and permits have declined the furthest.

🤖 Figure.AI raises $1 billion: The humanoid robotics startup announced a massive $1 billion funding round with a valuation of $39 billion, an exponential rise from its last valuation of $2.6 billion 18 months ago.

🏢 Dining slowdown: Despite sustained retail spending by wealthier consumers, lower and middle-income Americans are spending less on retail and dining, with foot traffic declining as the holiday season approaches.

🚀 50 most valuable private companies: AI companies now represent 20 of the top 50 private companies worldwide, led by SpaceX, OpenAI, ByteDance, and Anthropic.

🎨 Sotheby’s lands major collections: Its New York fall auctions will feature both the Lauder collection, estimated to be worth $400 million, and the Pritzer collection, estimated to be worth $120 million. The Lauder collection includes a painting by Klimt that could fetch up to $150 million alone.

🪙 Crypto yield: Looking for ways to generate yield from crypto holdings? From secured lending to market-neutral trading with futures and options, this guide lays it out.

🚘 $4 million Lamborghini: A one of one 1998 Lamborghini supercar concept called the Pregunta is coming to auction at Broad Arrow on October 10 with an estimated $4 million price tag.

Another day, another legal challenge for AI, as Penske Media, owner of the magazines Rolling Stone, Variety, and others, is suing Google over the latter’s AI summaries that appears at the top of search results. These overviews are having a profound effect on search traffic, and Penske claims that affiliate revenue has declined by one-third from its peak. Penske also alleges that Google has used its leverage as the dominant search engine to pressure publishers to let its content be used to train AI models and in AI summaries. Expect more media companies to pursue legal action and the eventual outcome to have a significant impact on both Google and AI startups such as Perplexity.