*as of 9/16; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, moving it to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. This hike is the first increase since 2023, and reverses last year’s trend of rate cuts that many had expected would continue through 2026. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explained that persistently high inflation was what led to the rate hike, and it seems likely that there will be at least one more hike this year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Even though the move was expected, the news that more rate hikes are likely to come caused markets to fall in the afternoon, with the S&P 500 closing down 0.5% and the Dow Jones down 1.2%. Mortgage rates are also expected to increase, and could stay in the low 7% range for the foreseeable future, keeping the real estate market stuck in neutral. If they haven’t already, investors will need to adjust their expectations for the interest rate environment, because it seems as if it is going to stay this high for at least another year or two.

📈 Retail sales rebound: After a 0.5% decline in U.S. sales in July, there was a turnaround in August, which saw a 1.2% gain, well above the expected 0.7%. Keep in mind that these sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation, and some of the 47% rise in gas prices and 68% rise in diesel prices since the beginning of the Iran War is baked in.

💵 Record-high default rate: The U.S. private credit default rate rose to 6.3% in August, a new all-time record, with the highest default activity coming in the health care, industrial, and manufacturing sectors. Even though investors have been concerned about software companies, they are posting the lowest default rate of any sector.

🤖 Possible OpenAI fundraise: Coming on the heels of CEO Sam Altman saying an IPO won’t happen this year, OpenAI is reportedly considering a fundraise at a valuation of $1.2 trillion. This would represent a significant step up from the $852 billion valuation it achieved in March, but nowhere close to the reported $2 trillion rival Anthropic is targeting in its IPO.

🏡 Buying v. renting: The average rent is now less than the average monthly housing payment in every major metro area in the U.S., with the biggest differences coming in Californian markets like San Jose, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.

🚀 Climate fundraising plummeting: Firms specializing in climate tech investing have raised only $546 million over six funds across all of 2026 so far, compared to $3.9 billion over 37 funds in 2025, which itself was down significantly from the 2021-22 peak.

🎨 Keith Haring works for sale: Around 40 of the iconic Pop artist’s artworks are being auctioned at Sotheby’s early next month, with some carrying estimates as low as $5,000.

The general mood surrounding the AI industry has grown bleaker in the past week. There has been a lot of media coverage surrounding an AI apocalypse, and if you want to go down that rabbit hole and read about a lot of possible scenarios, you have some options. In an effort at transparency, OpenAI has decided to share more frequent updates about AI models acting deceptively. The company is trying to show that it is being diligent about monitoring concerning behavior, but that it’s happening at all is not particularly reassuring. AI is unpopular with Americans of all stripes, and many are worried about its environmental effects. Given the amount of money being poured into the sector and how much it has boosted the economy in the past year, there has to be some concern that all this negative sentiment is going to show up in the market at some point.