Alternative Investing Report - September 12, 2025

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*as of 9/11; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

A pair of inflation readings were released in the past two days, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 0.4% monthly and 2.9% yearly, slightly above expectations. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% monthly and 3.1% yearly. On the producer side, the producer price index (PPI) was unexpectedly down 0.1% monthly and up 2.6% yearly. Core PPI also declined by 0.1% and was up 2.8% yearly.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While inflation is still higher than the Fed’s 2% target, the good PPI data counterbalances the CPI data enough that the market is now pricing in a rate cut when the Fed meets next week. A cut is especially likely as unemployment filings hit the highest rate since 2021 and the Fed has expressed concerns over a weakening labor market. CME’s FedWatch tool now pegs the chances of a cut at 100%, with a small chance of a bigger 50 basis point cut.

As of the end of Q2, over the prior twelve months, private funds raised $1.27 trillion in capital, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the year before. Private equity (-34.4%) and venture capital (-35.0%) saw significant declines, while secondaries (+20.4%) and private credit (+9.0%) saw increases. The number of funds raised fell dramatically across all sectors, by nearly 50% overall.

➨ TAKEAWAY: 2025 is on pace to be the fourth straight year of fundraising declines, and the fund count has dropped by nearly 75% from its 2021 peak. Liquidity issues have hampered private markets, particularly venture capital and private equity. The firms that have been able to attract capital have been more established ones and the funds that are being raised are bigger on average than in years past.

🏡 Mortgage rates continue decline: The Freddie Mac average 30-year mortgage rate fell by a whopping 15 basis points, hitting 6.35%, the lowest level in nearly a year, which should start to boost the housing market.

🚀 Biggest quantum raise ever: The quantum computing startup PsiQuantum announced a $1 billion funding round at a $7 billion valuation, which is the biggest funding round ever in the sector. PsiQuantum also announced a new collaboration with Nvidia, which also invested in the company.

🪙 GOP senator halts crypto bill: Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) expressed concerns about advancing a current crypto bill that would be the Senate’s version of the CLARITY act that the House already passed relating to the SEC and CFTC’s jurisdiction over digital assets.

🏢 AI helping office leasing: The rapid growth of the AI industry has led to greater demand for office space in tech centers such as San Francisco, Seattle, and New York City.

🤖 Physical Intelligence fundraise: The robotics startup is reportedly in talks for a new round that would put its valuation at $5 billion, double its valuation from last November.

📏 First calculator ever: One of only nine known examples of a calculating machine developed in 1642 by Blaine Pascal is being auctioned by Christie’s in November, and carries an estimate of more than $2 million - $3 million.

Monday: 🪙 Crypto adoption index, 🎬 Lightsaber sale
Tuesday: 🚀 Global VC funding, 🚀 StubHub IPO
Wednesday: ❗ OpenAI secondaries, 🏡 Inventory rising
Thursday: 🚀 Klarna IPO, 📈 New stock index

Have a great weekend!