Happy Monday. Private markets have had a strong 2026 so far, Zcash is on fire, the Hand of God ball disappointed, and spacetech stayed hot. Let’s dive in!
🎤 Listen: To the latest episode of Smart Humans, where Slava Rubin talks to entrepreneur and investor Shane Neman about investing in startups and the future of AI.
This issue is brought to you by Aurite, Inc. - Runtime agent identification, governance and security.
📈 WEEKLY MARKETS
💵 FUND RETURNS
Pitchbook’s latest look at the current health of private market funds found that every sector is in a stronger position now than it was at the start of the year. Its Private Capital Return Barometers are designed to evaluate the current return environment for funds based on market fundamentals, returning a score between 0 and 100, with 50 being neutral. Both Private Equity and Venture Capital have improved the most in 2026, with the former jumping from 54 to an asset-class high 74, and the latter going from 48 to 71. Private credit and Infrastructure showed positive momentum, climbing 12 and 13 points respectively, while Natural Resources only rose by 3 points.
➨ TAKEAWAY: The barometer scores can be mapped to projected returns, with VC leading the way showing an estimated 5.5% return in Q2 and 4.3% return in Q1. The improvements in PE and VC have been driven by a rebound in deal activity and an increase in exit activity. Keep in mind that these are not actual returns, but they are a good indicator of the trend so far this year for these asset classes.
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🎤 PODCAST
“To sustainably make money you have to be able to be a long-term investor.” - Shane Neman
In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with entrepreneur and investor Shane Neman about startup failures, successful investments, and the future of AI and innovation.
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🪙 Zcash rally: The privacy crypto token has eclipsed the $800 mark to reach its highest level in more than 8 years, as Grayscale comes closer to launching a U.S. ETF. Zcash is up 70% in the past week, far eclipsing the 20% the crypto market as a whole has risen, and has quadrupled in price over the last six months.
⚽ “Hand of God” ball sale: While it fell well short of the $10 million pre-sale estimate, the game-used ball from Diego Maradona’s famed 1986 goal still sold for $3.35 million, which is a solid return above the $2.37 million it fetched in 2022.
🚀 Another space unicorn: The satellite manufacturing startup Muon Space raised $250 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion, in another big fundraise for the spacetech sector. Our latest investor briefing just covered the industry and current investment opportunities in it.
🏢 Office vacancy drops further: The national vacancy rate for U.S. office buildings fell to 17.7%, a 130 basis point decrease year-over-year. Manhattan remains the top market for sales volume and pricing, and there has been a clear “flight to quality” as buyers and renters target high-end buildings in top markets.
🤖 Fractile fundraise: Another AI chip startup has raised a big round, with UK-based Fractile securing $600 million at a $6.5 billion valuation, more than six times its $1 billion valuation from just three months ago. The company recently reached a deal to supply chips to Anthropic, a clear catalyst in its valuation jump.
🏈 Arctos invests in Falcons: The private equity firm is buying 10% of the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons at a $10.6 billion valuation, which is the highest valuation an NFL team has reached. This is the fourth investment Arctos has made in an NFL team, adding to its stakes in the Bills, Chargers, and Browns.
📆 LOOKING FORWARD
Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; New home sales report released; Consumer confidence index released.
Wednesday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, released; Nvidia reports its quarterly earnings.
Thursday: The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins, hosted by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City.
Sunday: The U.S. Open Tennis Championships kick off in Flushing Meadows.
