Alternative Investing Report - August 22, 2025

*as of 8/21; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

A recent M.I.T. study found that 95% of companies that have implemented generative AI pilot programs have seen no return on their investment despite billions of dollars being spent. The study looked at 300 different initiatives and found limited success, with smaller companies faring better than larger ones. It also found that companies that bought AI tools had more success than those that invested in building internal agents and models.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It seems that while many models and AI agents work well for individuals or small teams, they struggle to work efficiently at company-wide levels. There is also a “learning gap” where people within the companies did not know how to use AI properly, meaning it may not be AI that is the problem, but how it’s implemented. The release of this study, as well as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s comments about an AI bubble and Meta’s AI reorganization has investors worried, which may slow down the exponential growth of the AI sector.

In this episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with HEALEY PRE-IPO’s Christine Healey about investing in pre-IPO Tech Unicorns in today’s market and the importance of understanding the landscape.

Coinciding with the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming just became the first state to issue its own stablecoin. The Frontier Stable Token (FRNT) is now available on the Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and four other blockchains and is backed by cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries. The interest generated by the stablecoin reserves will go towards public school funding in the state.

➨ TAKEAWAY: This is a big step for crypto in terms of government recognition, and increased mainstream acceptance of digital assets. Ideally, stablecoin use will lower payment costs for consumers and businesses compared to credit cards, and the interest earned is going to be used in a productive way. However, stablecoin companies should be wary that government is becoming involved and could gradually take over the industry. Crypto as a whole has already diverged significantly from its founding libertarian ethos of being an alternative to centralized payment systems, but this just pushes it further away.

🏡 Existing home sales rise: July saw existing home sales increase by 2% monthly and 0.8% year-over-year, as marginal decreases in mortgage rates and flattening home prices have made homebuying slightly more affordable.

🏢 Data centers stay hot: The vacancy rate for data centers in North America hit a record low of 1.6% in the first half of 2025, as demand from AI continues to increase.

🚀 Quantinuum fundraise: The quantum computing startup is reportedly looking to raise a new round at a $10 billion valuation, which would double its valuation from last January.

💵 Private credit defaults increasing: The official default rate for private credit rose from 2.9% to 3.4% in Q2, though the “shadow default rate,” which counts payment-in-kind arrangements, has risen to 6%.

🤖 AI sleep tech unicorn: Eight Sleep, a smart mattress startup, raised a $100 million round that doubled its previous valuation of $500 million as it evolves into a more expansive health tech company.

🎬 Spider-Man suit auction: A suit worn by Tobey Maguire in Spider-Man 2 is coming up for auction next month and is expected to fetch between $100,000 - $200,000.

Monday: 🏡 Mortgage rates
Tuesday: 🤖 AI bubble?, 🚘 Monterey Car Week
Wednesday: 🏡 Construction data, 🏢 CRE market
Thursday: 🏡 Housing market, 🪙 Tokenization

Have a great weekend!