Happy Thursday. The Fed held rates steady, industrial real estate demand keeps growing, the U.S. banned foreign-made robots, and crypto might be subject to wash sale rules soon. Let's dive in!
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📈 DAILY MARKETS
📊 FED DECISION
For the fifth straight meeting, and the second under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates steady. The market had been pricing in a 1 in 3 chance of a rate hike, so while the decision was not a surprise, it also hadn’t been a lock. There were three dissenters who voted for a rate hike to curb rising inflation. CME’s FedWatch tool now projects a 65% chance of a rate hike in September and more than a 50% chance of multiple rate hikes by next January.
➨ TAKEAWAY: Markets took a beating in the aftermath of the decision, with the S&P 500 down 1.5%, the Nasdaq 100 down 1.7%, and the Dow Jones down 2.2% for its worst day since April 2025. Treasury yields were way up, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest level since 2007, in clear anticipation of future rate hikes. Right now, it would take a major shift in the macro environment, such as a definitive end to the Iran War, to change the narrative. Otherwise, expect higher interest rates by the end of the year.
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📺 UPCOMING EVENT
Join Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund as they revisit the SpaceX investment thesis to see how it played out. They’ll examine the company’s public debut, the impact of lockup expirations, and what the listing reveals about today’s IPO environment. They’ll also turn to the next wave of potential IPOs, including Anthropic, OpenAI, and other late-stage private companies, and discuss what investors should watch for as the IPO market evolves.
Tuesday August 4 at 11 AM ET
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🏢 Industrial vacancy falls: For the first time since 2022, rental demand for U.S. industrial real estate has exceeded new supply, driving down the national vacancy rate. Net absorption, the difference between new leasing and lease expirations, hit a level more than double last year’s, with strong demand anticipated to continue through the rest of the year.
🤖 Foreign robot ban: The Trump Administration is banning imports of foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots, in a move that is clearly targeted at China, the main rival to U.S.-made robots. The ban is ostensibly for national security reasons, has already led to an outcry from the Chinese government, and could lead to retaliatory measures.
🪙 Wash sale loophole: A bipartisan group of lawmakers is aiming to end a rule exception that exempts crypto from “wash sale” rules. Currently, digital asset investors can harvest tax losses and then immediately repurchase the same coins, a potentially lucrative move.
🏡 More mortgages for second homes: For the first time in four years, the number of second-home mortgage originations grew year-over-year, rising by 4.1%. This rise has come after a significant drop in second-home purchases after the pandemic boom, as high-income buyers start to dip their toes back into the vacation home market.
🚀 Seed investors target cybersecurity: Seed stage funding for AI-related cybersecurity startups reached $855 million across more than 150 funding rounds in 2026, on pace for an all-time high.
👟 Eminem sneaker auction: The rapper is putting more than 100 pairs of autographed, rare sneakers from his personal collection up for sale via Julien’s Auctions next month with the proceeds to benefit his charity. The most valuable pairs are expected to fetch $25,000-$35,000 each.
🤖 AI CORNER
It has been widely discussed that AI’s massive amount of energy usage has led to higher electricity bills for Americans, but it turns out that it’s been pushing the prices of other goods higher and has become a significant driver of inflation. It’s estimated that households are spending $375 more this year to purchase the same goods and services they did last year. Apparently, 0.2 percentage points of overall inflation can be attributed to AI, roughly 6% of the current inflation rate. Besides electricity, the AI boom has pushed the price of consumer electronics higher, as well as computer hardware and software, and construction material and labor costs.
