Alternative Investing Report - June 29, 2026

*as of 6/28, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The fast-growing prediction markets space may be seeing two new entrants, as both Meta and Charles Schwab are preparing their own platforms to compete with incumbents Kalshi and Polymarket. Meta is developing an AI-operated app called “Arena” that would presumably be integrated with its social media platforms. Charles Schwab is partnering with Cboe Global Markets to initially offer binary options on the S&P 500 before potentially expanding.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The rapid growth of the top two prediction markets has inspired a number of copycats, but none with the heft behind them that Meta and Charles Schwab have. The industry has become a lucrative business, as evidenced by Polymarket’s $1 billion revenue run rate and Kalshi’s reported $40 billion fundraise, and there could be room for others to have success. Polymarket is facing accusations of deceptive marketing, among other regulatory issues, which could also make them vulnerable. Investors should keep an eye on the sector, as it should continue to see rapid changes over the coming year.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with iConnections CEO and co-founder Ron Biscardi about the SpaceX IPO and the future of private markets.

📊 Consumer sentiment index: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 49.5 from a record-low 44.8 in May, largely due to falling gas prices as a result of the Iran peace deal. Despite the increase in sentiment, the index is still significantly lower than the 60.5 reading a year ago, as consumers are still concerned about inflation.

🏡 Median listing prices fall: The median U.S. housing listing price has fallen by 3.1% year-over-year, as active inventory levels continue to increase. New listing activity continues to accelerate, and is up 3.2% year-over-year.

🚀 Biggest weekly fundraises: The biggest funding round of last week went to AI inference startup Baseten, which secured a $1.5 billion round at a $13 billion valuation, more than double its valuation from January. It was followed by a $1 billion round raised by digital marketing startup AppsFlyer and a $650 million round for AI chipmaker Groq.

🤖 AI models limited: Two advanced AI models - OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and Anthropic’s Mythos 5 - are being restricted to customers approved by the Trump administration. The restrictions come after an executive order that established a framework for the government to review AI models for 30 days before their public release.

🎨 Rediscovered Rembrandt: A restored and recently discovered painting by the Dutch Master is being auctioned this Wednesday as the centerpiece of Sotheby’s Old Masters auction in London and carries a high estimate of $15.8 million.

🍷 Charles Shaw winery sells: Benessere Vineyards, a 43-acre property that once belonged to Charles Shaw of “Two-Buck Chuck” fame, and which we covered back in April, sold at auction for $9 million. It had originally been listed for $35 million in 2024 and only attracted the opening, winning bid.

Monday: The Wimbledon tennis championships begin.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; Consumer confidence index released.

Wednesday: ADP private employment report released; The Jim Irsay Collection sales continue at Christie’s with the Icons of History auction, including a copy of the Declaration of Independence.

Thursday: U.S. jobs report to be released.

Friday: Markets will be closed to observe Independence Day.

Saturday: July 4th marks the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Happy U.S. Independence Day!