Alternative Investing Report - June 19, 2025

In partnership with

*as of 6/18; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

In a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve made no changes to interest rates, marking the fourth straight meeting they have made the same decision. They still project two more rate cuts by the end of the year, but 7 of the 19 board members now expect zero rate cuts, an increase from the last meeting. Neither the stock market nor crypto market moved much on the news, staying mostly flat.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Concerns over inflation remain, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell believes that tariffs will increase inflation in the coming months. As long as inflation remains above the target rate of 2%, unemployment stays low and the economy stays steady, there are not likely to be rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool now projects a 90% chance of no rate cut at the next meeting in July. This means mortgage rates are going to continue to remain high and asset classes that thrive in low interest rate environments will take longer to rebound.

In this episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Fenchurch Legal's CEO and Founder Louisa Klouda about the world of litigation finance and the opportunities the asset class presents for investors.

With artwork from more than 4,000 artists displayed via more than 280 galleries, Switzerland’s Art Basel - the preeminent art fair in the world - officially opens today. There have already been major sales from the VIP preview that has been underway, led by a $9.5 million Ruth Asawa sculpture and a $6.8 million Gerard Richter painting. There are blue-chip works from Mark Rothko, Pablo Picasso, and Joan Mitchell that are expected to fetch 8-figure sums but have not been sold as of yet.

➨ TAKEAWAY: One possible reason for less movement on the top-end pieces is that there are far fewer Americans in attendance than usual, which has led to less competition. However, across price points there has been a lot of activity already, and the upcoming weekend will provide more data. Even for non-attendees, this list of the best booths at the fair is a good resource to keep track of which artists could see their stock rise after the event.

🏡 New residential construction stalling: Housing starts and total permits fell to their lowest point since 2020, as tariffs and lowered housing demand have caught up to the industry. Completions remained steady with a lot of construction still underway, but the pace of supply growth will be lower in the long-run.

🦕 Ceratosaurus fossil: In July, Sotheby’s is auctioning off a 10-foot long, 150-million year old Ceratosaurus skeleton, one of four ever found, and it is expected to sell for between $4 million - $6 million.

🚀 Helsing fundraise: The European defense tech startup raised a $692 million round at a $14 billion valuation, more than doubling its price from a year ago and making it one of the biggest startups in Europe.

🏢 Office inventory shrinking: Thanks to more residential conversions, demolition of old buildings, and less construction, office inventory is on track to decline for the first time in more than 25 years.

💵 Private credit stays hot: Global private credit fundraising hit $59 billion in Q1, a 60% rise over Q4, largely due to Europe raising a record $31 billion.

🍷 Koch wine collection: Christie’s 3-day live auction of billionaire William Koch’s wine collection fetched $28.8 million, a new record for a single-owner wine collection in North America.

One of the ongoing, major concerns over the rise of AI is that it will end up costing a lot of people their jobs in the coming years. Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called “Godfather of AI” recently said that he believes many white-collar jobs will be replaced by AI, but blue-collar jobs such as plumbers should be safe. Many people in the tech world believe many computer programmers, lawyers, accountants, designers and copywriters will not survive the AI age. On the flip side, there are entire fields of jobs that have yet to be created that will develop to deal with AI. Possibilities include different type of auditors, authenticators, and evaluators to refine AI outputs, but there will be jobs that we can’t even imagine right now. As with all new technology, those prepared to adapt will fare best.