Alternative Investing Report - June 18, 2026

*as of 6/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

In new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, the Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates steady, a decision that was widely expected. Though the decision was not a surprise, what was somewhat unexpected is that many Fed officials now believe there will be rate hikes this year, with the median estimate for the year-end rate above where it stands now. The Fed is now also projecting that inflation will not reach its 2% target until 2028.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Markets did not react kindly to the news, with the Dow down 1%, the S&P 500 down 1.2% and the Nasdaq 100 down 1.3%. Treasury yields were up, and crypto’s market cap fell by around 3%. CME’s FedWatch tool now projects a 30% chance of a rate hike in July and a 62% chance of at least one hike by September with no chance of a cut by the end of the year. This is disappointing news for investors, particularly for the real estate market, which has been stuck in neutral due to high mortgage rates. One hope is that the end of the Iran war could bring inflation down and change the calculus in the coming months, so watch next month’s inflation reports with a close eye.

 
🚀 SpaceX buying Cursor: Only days after its massive IPO, SpaceX is acquiring the AI coding startup Cursor in an all-stock deal valued at $60 billion. SpaceX had previously invested in Cursor and held the option to make this deal, so it was an expected move that will bolster the company’s AI division.

📊 Retail sales beat expectations: U.S. retail sales grew 0.9% in May, well ahead of the projected 0.5% and April’s 0.4% mark. This surprise performance is a positive sign for the economy, although part of the increase is due to inflation and rising gas prices.

🏡 Pending home sales jump: A report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), show that U.S. pending home sales were up 3.8% in May and 4.8% year-over-year, rising in every region of the country. The increase could be a sign that buyers and sellers are finally accepting that rates are not coming down anytime soon and are adjusting to the new status quo.

🪙 SpaceX boosts Hyperliquid: The crypto derivatives market saw $1.4 billion in trading volume on its SpaceX contract on the day of its IPO, and the value of its native token has jumped by 25% in the past week.

💵 Private credit woes: Private credit defaults have surged to their highest levels since 2023, as the sector continues to struggle this year. Lenders are already tightening their standards, but there is likely to be fallout over the number of risky loans made during the asset class’s recent expansion.

🎨 Art Basel kicks off: The world’s most prestigious art fair is off to a rousing start, with sales noticeably stronger than last year during the first VIP preview day. There were a number of seven-figure sales, including $35 million for a Picasso painting and $8.5 million for a painting by David Hockney, who recently passed away.

If in the future you read about AI-assisted drones being successfully used in warfare, it might be because of Pokémon Go, the mobile game that peaked in popularity in 2018 but still counts an estimated 60 million active users. The augmented reality game allows players to “catch” Pokémon using their cameras, and a feature added in 2021 had users upload recordings of real-life locations. Niantic, the company that co-created the game, has used those scans to train its AI models on how to interpret and recognize physical spaces, and now those AI models are helping with drone navigation. There is a concern that data created by people trying to find a Charizard is now being used to potentially find enemies on a battlefield, but it shows how valuable data from unexpected sources can be to AI companies.