Alternative Investing Report - June 18, 2025

*as of 6/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The GENIUS Act, a piece of legislation that establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins, passed the U.S. Senate by a 68 to 30 vote yesterday. It still needs to pass the U.S. House and get signed by President Trump to become law, but it is widely expected to do so. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that are pegged to the value of real-world assets, almost always the U.S. dollar, and this legislation sets official requirements for issuers. It also could allow banks, fintech companies, and even retailers to issue their own stablecoins.

➨ TAKEAWAY: This is a watershed moment for the crypto industry, with the first ever piece of crypto-related legislation passing the Senate. Once it becomes law, it could also signal the beginning of a new system of payments in the country. The crypto industry spent a lot of money on political donations in the last election cycle, and while this is the first piece of legislation, there will be more on the way. Regulation is another step towards legitimization, and will help mainstream Americans become more comfortable with crypto.

The rental market was mostly flat in May, as the average asking rent for 0-2 bedroom properties was up 0.3% but fell by 1.7% year-over-year. The biggest yearly gains came in Kansas City and New York, while the biggest losses came in Denver, San Diego, and Birmingham. Zillow’s rental report showed a similar 0.4% monthly gain, but a 3.2% year-over-year increase. The largest increases came in Cleveland, Chicago, and Providence, while the largest monthly drops were in Tampa, Phoenix, and New Orleans.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The cooling housing market has pushed more would-be buyers to rent instead, but that increased demand has been offset by increased supply. Many of the markets seeing declines are — not coincidentally — the ones that saw the most new multifamily construction over the past few years. Investors should track new developments within their target cities and neighborhoods.

🤖 OpenAI wins government contract: The AI startup was awarded a $200 million contract to provide AI tools to the U.S. Department of Defense, which is a small percentage of its annual revenue but could be a sign of bigger things to come.

🏢 CRE Fear & Greed Index: The JBREC + CRE Daily Fear and Greed Index showed a mild improvement in Q2 as investor sentiment improved, particularly in the multifamily and industrial sectors.

🚀 IPO shares rising quickly: Shares of companies on their first day going public have risen at the fastest pace since 2021, bringing new life to the previously stagnant IPO market. Beware, though, because since 1980 nearly 90% of companies that doubled in their first day of trading then went on to have negative 3-year returns after that first day.

🏡 Homebuilder sentiment plummets: The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell in June, defying analyst expectations of an improvement. It is down 25.5% in the past year and is now at the third-lowest level over the last 13 years.

⚽ Lamine Yamal record: The next young global soccer superstar is the 17 year-old Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal, and his 1/1 2024 Topps Chrome UEFA Euro Superfractor just sold for a record $396,500, more than tripling the previous record for a Yamal card.

💵 Private equity ETF: The asset manager VanEck launched its Alternative Asset Manager ETF, offering investors exposure to the space by investing into the publicly traded stocks of private equity firms such as Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Ares, and more.

When we featured the memecoin dogwifhat last month, it had just doubled in value, but we cautioned that memecoins are extremely volatile. It has since dropped significantly and had the biggest decline of any token in the top-100 by market cap over the last week. Other memecoins such as Floki (-21.8%), Bonk (-20.8), Pepe (-20.5%), and even the biggest - Dogecoin (-13.6%) - all saw significant price drops. The downswing is partially because geopolitical tension in the Middle East has caused investors to flee to safer assets - Bitcoin, for example is down only 4% in the last week. The drop is also partially due to a number of memecoins accounts being banned on X over the weekend. Overall, dogwifhat is down more than 80% from its high of more than $4 last November but still above its recent low of around $0.30 in April.