Alternative Investing Report - May 19, 2025

*as of 5/18; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The AI market is projected to be worth $20 trillion by 2032, based on research by the investment platform Fundrise, which looked at historical trends from the past four decades. Starting with the PC industry, the Internet boom, Mobile, Cloud, and now AI, it found that each new wave has tripled the market cap of the previous wave. Around 25% of the value is in the hardware layer, which is where the wave starts, 25% in the platform layer, and 50% in the applications layer.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Nvidia is the hardware leader, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others in the platform layer, but that leaves a potential $10 trillion application market mostly untapped. There is a reason why AI and machine learning startups have accounted for more than 70% of all VC funding so far in 2025, accelerating an ongoing trend. It’s also possible that $20 trillion is a conservative estimate, as AI could accelerate growth past the historical 3x.

The stock and crypto trading platform eToro’s IPO was a success, and its share price rose more than 20% since its debut. The offering could help continue the resurgence of exit activity in the fintech sector. Q1 already saw $1.6 billion in global exit activity, a 200% year-over-year increase, and the best pace in three years. A number of notable fintech startups have either announced IPOs or are rumored to be pursuing them, including Chime, Klarna, and Stripe.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Investors have been eager for the IPO window to open again, as pathways to liquidity have been narrow the past few years. Every successful IPO entices more companies to consider their own offerings, and indeed, a number of companies, both in the U.S. and in Europe, are moving ahead with IPO plans. The rest of the year and next year could see a number of notable offerings, and investors should consider whether to try and get exposure in some of these startups before they go public.

📉 Consumer sentiment worsens: A University of Michigan survey showed that consumer sentiment dropped for the fourth straight month, and is at the second-lowest reading ever recorded, as inflation concerns and recession fears loom.

🏀 Jordan uniform sells: A jersey and shorts worn by Michael Jordan and photo-matched to 17 games in the 1992-93 NBA season sold for $2.6 million at Heritage Auctions over the weekend.

🏡 Mixed construction results: Overall housing starts rose 1.6% in April, but single-family starts are down 12% year-over-year, while multifamily starts increased by 10.7% year-over-year. The SFR drop reflects rising construction costs that affect smaller projects more acutely than larger ones.

🪙 Canada’s crypto ascent: The regulatory clarity that has come with rulemaking by the Canadian government has led the country to become a global leader in digital assets with a potential for 30 million crypto users, setting an example for potential U.S. legislation.

💎 $21.5 million diamond: The Mediterranean Blue, a 10-carat fancy vivid blue diamond, posted the highest sale for any jewel so far in 2025, selling for $21.5 million at Sotheby’s in Geneva, topping the pre-sale estimate of $20 million.

💵 Private credit ratings: There are growing concerns over whether the relationship between companies that rate private credit products and the issuers of those products lead to conflicts of interest that can cause inaccurate and inflated grades.

Wednesday: Christie’s Old Masters and 19th Century Paintings auction.

Thursday: Existing home sales report released; President Trump hosts the top holders of his crypto meme token Trumpcoin for a private dinner; Fanatics Collect Premier Auction, featuring a number of six-figure sports cards.

Friday: New home sales report released.

Saturday: Michael Schumacher’s F1 race-winning 2001 Ferrari F2001 will be auctioned in Monte Carlo by Sotheby’s and could sell for $10 million or more.