Alternative Investing Report - April 7, 2026

*as of 4/6, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

Warning lights are blinking for private credit, and experts are expressing concerns - with Michael Burry noting “it looks like the end of the road to me," Jamie Dimon's annual shareholder letter flagging a lack of "great transparency or rigorous valuation marks," joining others in warning that investors are likely to experience increased headwinds in the asset class. And investors are taking heed. Last week, Blue Owl investors tried to pull $5.4 billion from two non-traded funds in a single quarter — representing 22% of the firm’s $36 billion flagship and 41% of its tech-focused fund. Other firms including Apollo, Ares, BlackRock's HPS Lending, KKR's K-FIT, and Barings have all hit their 5% quarterly redemption caps this quarter too. The circuit breakers are holding for now — but the $2 trillion sector has never been tested like this.

➨ TAKEAWAY: If you reaped the gains on years of outperformance with non-traded BDCs, interval funds like those offered by Blue Owl, Blackstone BCRED and Ares, or their private alternatives, this may be time to take stock. Funds cap quarterly withdrawals at 5% by design, meaning in a stress scenario you could wait years to fully exit. That's not necessarily a reason to sell — in fact, today’s buyers may be getting in at favorable prices. But it is time to acknowledge just how illiquid these holdings can be, and ensure that it aligns with your time horizon. Secondary buyers are circling these funds, which may eventually create an exit path, but for now the demand seems muted, suggesting exits could come later and at bigger discounts.

🏗️ Apartment construction in decline: There isn't a single unit under construction in 16 of the nation's 150 largest apartment markets, up from 10 a year ago and just 6 the year before. Honolulu has 8% rent growth with nothing in the pipeline, while markets like Youngstown, OH (99% occupancy) and Atlantic City, NJ (98%) are increasingly landlord-friendly, suggesting low supply is likely to persist.

⚖️ Kalshi can stay in sports: The Third Circuit ruled 2-1 that federal commodity law preempts New Jersey's gambling statutes, blocking the state from shutting the prediction market provider down. The CFTC has backed Kalshi throughout in a meaningful win for prediction markets broadly — though Nevada went the other way, and a Ninth Circuit hearing is coming later this month.

💼 VC in Q1 stays concentrated: PitchBook's data shows funding concentration at historic highs — AI mega-rounds drove the headline numbers while seed and early-stage deal count fell - but terms are shifting in founders’ favor, with up-rounds accelerating and down-round pressure easing.

🏢 PE Fundraising at a decade-low: Global buyout, growth, and turnaround funds raised just $86 billion in Q1, a pace that would put 2026 well below last year's already weak $423 billion total. The culprit? Institutional LPs over-allocated to private markets with less room for new commitments. Mega-funds are still closing — KKR raised $23B for its flagship — but mid-market managers are starving.

🏦 Coinbase approved for a National Bank Trust Charter: The OCC granted Coinbase conditional approval to establish a federally regulated digital asset custodian, a landmark step toward bank-level regulatory standing for the largest U.S. crypto exchange that would unlock institutional custody business.

📊 March jobs report may not help the housing market: The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, bouncing back from February's revised -133,000. But payroll growth averaged just $68,000 per month in Q1, the labor force shrank by 396,000, and discouraged workers rose 144,000. Choppy, downward-revised job growth is exactly the kind of backdrop that keeps potential homebuyers on the sidelines — even when the headline number looks fine.

🎨 India’s record art sale: Raja Ravi Varma's "Yashoda and Krishna" sold at Saffronart in Mumbai on April 1, nearly doubling the high estimate and making it the most expensive Indian artwork ever sold at auction. It caps a blockbuster season for South Asian art — Sotheby's set records for 12 artists in a $22.1M New York sale last month, and Christie's posted its highest-ever South Asian total of $27M the following day.

Thursday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, will be released.

Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI inflation reports released; consumer sentiment report released.

Saturday: Goldin’s March Elite auction, featuring multiple six-figure Shohei Ohtani cards.

Sunday: The NBA regular season comes to a close, with the play-in tournament set to begin the following Tuesday.