Alternative Investing Report - March 30, 2026

*as of 3/29, Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

With the Iran War now four weeks old, and investors now skeptical that a conclusion is coming anytime soon, long-term economic concerns are starting to mount. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) now projects U.S. inflation to hit 4.2% in 2026, well up from its previous 2.8% projection and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. As a consequence, futures traders now expect the next interest rate move by the Fed to be a hike, not a cut, with a 52% chance of interest rates rising by the end of the year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: After starting the year with hopes of multiple rate cuts, it now seems that the best investors can hope for is for there to be no change. The CME FedWatch tool also sees a greater chance of a hike than a cut, though it still projects that rates will be 75 basis points lower by the end of 2027. While the long-term outlook has not diminished that much, the short-term outlook is less rosy, and markets are taking a hit, with stocks now down for five consecutive weeks, and the Nasdaq and Dow in official correction status. There is the potential for a significant “peace bump” if the war comes to an end, but when that happens is anyone’s guess.

Vincent's Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund take an in-depth look at some of the hottest startups in one of the hottest sectors - defense tech. They discuss Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, and how the current geopolitical situation is affecting the ecosystem at large.

📊 Consumer sentiment falls: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped almost 6% in March, much more than expected, nearly reaching an all-time low. Consumers are worried about inflation and rising gas prices resulting from the war in Iran, as the survey’s short-term economic outlook metric fell 14%.

🏡 Top growth markets: While home prices have stagnated in many parts of the country, a number of metros in the Midwest and Northeast are still putting up strong numbers. Looking at job growth, housing affordability and rent growth, top markets include Columbus, OH, Indianapolis, IN, and Pittsburgh, PA.

🎬 $1 million C3PO head: Propstore’s weekend auction had a number of notable sales, headlined by the $1.06 million sale of the robot C3PO’s head from “The Empire Strikes Back.” For comedy fans, the “butt birth” mechanical rhino from “Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls” sold for nearly $60,000, more than seven times its high estimate.

🚀 Harvey’s new fundraise: The legal AI startup raised $200 million at a valuation of $11 billion, just months after its last raise at a valuation at $8 billion, as it has nearly doubled its annual recurring revenue in the past six months.

🤖 Anthropic wins ruling: A federal judge temporarily blocked the Pentagon from labeling the AI startup a “supply chain risk” after Anthropic disagreed with the government over the use of its AI models by the defense department. This ruling won’t force the Pentagon to use Anthropic, but it cannot ban other government agencies from doing so.

🪙 Crypto clears 401(k) step: The White House completed its regulatory review of a proposed labor department rule that could open the door to allowing crypto and other private market assets in 401(k) accounts.

Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; Consumer confidence index released.

Wednesday: Passover begins at sundown; ADP private jobs report, U.S. retail sales report released.

Friday: Good Friday; public markets are closed; March jobs report and unemployment rate released; Heritage’s Spring Sports Catalog auction, with dozens of cards, mostly vintage baseball, expected to exceed six figures.

Saturday: The NCAA basketball Final Four tips off in Indianapolis.

Sunday: Easter Sunday.