Alternative Investing Report - March 26 2026

*as of 3/25; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

The rocky 2026 for the private credit sector has continued, with yet another major fund limiting withdrawals and more bad news coming from new directions. Ares’ Strategic Income Fund only honored 43% of its redemption requests in Q1, following in the footsteps of other major asset managers such as Blue Owl, BlackRock and Apollo. Yesterday, the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded a KKR private credit fund to junk status, a worrying sign for other funds. Meanwhile, the SEC openly questioned whether a private credit ratings agency, Egan-Jones, can “consistently produce credit ratings with integrity.”

➨ TAKEAWAY: This has been a rapid change for the asset class, which had been a strong performer the past few years, attracting significant capital from institutional and retail investors. Sentiment is now falling, which could open up opportunities for discounted stakes on the secondary market, as funds and investors seek liquidity.

Vincent's Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund take an in-depth look at some of the hottest startups in one of the hottest sectors - defense tech. They discuss Anduril, Shield AI, Saronic, and how the current geopolitical situation is affecting the ecosystem at large.

🚀 SpaceX to file for IPO: The biggest IPO in history could be coming soon, as SpaceX is reportedly filing for its public offering as soon as this week. The company is looking to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and given pent-up investor demand, the first day of trading could be one for the record books.

📈 VCX just keeps pumping: Shares of the Fundrise Innovation Fund hit a new high of $575 before closing around $380, less than a week after it IPO’d at $31 per share. The price swings and volatility resemble a meme stock, as it trades well above its last reported net asset value (NAV) of $18.97.

🏡 Home prices flat: Redfin’s U.S. home price index only rose by 0.1% in February, the slowest pace in seven months, and was up 1.9% year-over-year. The biggest gains came in Charlotte, NC and Portland, OR, with the biggest losses coming in Jacksonville, FL, and Providence, RI.

🎰 Retail hurt on prediction markets: Because there are no limits on winning players like you might see at sportsbooks, the median return for retail traders on prediction markets is comparatively worse, at -8% compared to -5% at sportsbooks. This could pose a long-term problem for prediction markets if the customer base starts to get frustrated with losses and cuts down on activity.

🏢 Office conversions still growing: There are now more than 90,000 office-to-apartment rental units in development, a 28% increase year-over-year and almost four times the level from four years ago. Office conversion addresses both the office vacancy issue and the housing supply issue in one go, so it’s no surprise it is growing in popularity.

🎨 Art Basel Hong Kong: With Hong Kong Art Week underway, the first day at Art Basel Hong Kong saw a number of seven-figure sales, with the standout unsold piece being a Modigliani painting with a price tag of more than $13 million.

In a surprising move, OpenAI is shutting down its video tool Sora, only six months after releasing it to great fanfare, and only three months since it became available globally. One consequence of the wind-down decision is the termination of a potential $1 billion partnership with Disney, which was going to license its characters to the company. While other video generation tools cut in to Sora’s market share, the reality is that there is currently not much demand for AI video creation. Most of the output consists of blatant copyright violations, X-rated material, or misleading videos designed to go viral on social media. This move likely will not slow down the company’s valuation or future prospects, but it is a reminder to investors that many AI products will fail to find a market, and the exponential growth of AI in everyday life is bound to slow down at some point.