Alternative Investing Report - March 10, 2025

*as of 3/9; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Last week saw the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate drop to 6.63%, the lowest since December, with the biggest weekly decline since September. This caused mortgage purchase applications to rise by 9% in the past week, though pending sales are still down 6.4% year-over-year, reflecting the sluggish market overall. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell 2.5% in February, as the share of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to get worse in the next year rose from 15% to 22%.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Though rates are down, they are still higher than most buyers would accept - 54% of homeowners wouldn’t go above 5.5% on their next home purchase. Additionally, while falling mortgage rates will help the housing market, they can only contribute marginally to helping buyers if the overall economic situation worsens.

The highly anticipated White House crypto summit took place Friday, with guests including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, the Gemini founding Winklevoss twins, and other crypto leaders meeting with President Trump. The biggest takeaway from the summit actually came in advance, with the President’s executive order establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve as well as a separate digital asset stockpile. Many investors responded to the summit with disappointment, and Bitcoin fell more than 10% in its aftermath.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The news that the reserve will only include digital assets the government already owns means that there will be no additional buying demand from the government, at least for now. While it is good for the crypto industry that its leading executives are now prominent enough to warrant a sit down with the President, without additional demand, prices could continue to decline. There were high hopes that a national reserve would create that demand, but for now, it will have to come from elsewhere.

🚀 100 most valuable startups: The list of the world’s most valuable VC-backed companies is led by SpaceX, ByteDance, and OpenAI, with secondary valuation estimates showing an average discount of 15-35% compared to the most recent funding round.

🤖 Shield AI fundraise: The defense tech startup that builds AI-powered drones raised a $240 million round at a $5.3 billion valuation, nearly double its $2.7 billion valuation from October 2023.

🏡 Vegas market struggling: While the median home price has risen by 1.1% year-over-year, active listings in Sin City have grown by 60% and new listings by 20%, as fewer buyers can afford the average home, indicating that price drops could be imminent.

⚾ Paul Skenes record: The 1 of 1 debut rookie patch card of the reigning Rookie of the Year has hit $660,000, smashing the previous high for any of his cards, and creating speculation that it could hit seven figures when the auction closes next week.

💵 BondBloxx ETF: One of the relatively new private credit ETFs designed to give retail investors access to the asset class is up 1% since its debut in December, a decent result compared to the equity market’s performance in the same time period.

🎨 Egon Schiele watercolor: The artist’s “Boy in a Sailor Suit,” a drawing which was stolen from a Nazi concentration camp victim, sold for $4.2 million, more than double its high estimate, with the proceeds of the sale going to charity.

Tuesday: Christie’s Fine and Rare Spirits auction, featuring multiple 50-year old Macallan and Karuizawa whiskeys.

Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI inflation reports released.

Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI reports released.

Friday: Deadline to pass a funding bill to avoid a government shutdown; Heritage’s Fine & Rare Wine signature auction, which has already attracted more than $1.4 million in bids.