Alternative Investing Report - February 4, 2026

*as of 2/3; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

There was an estimated $5 trillion of global M&A activity in 2025 across more than 50,000 transactions, both all-time highs. Deal count was up 12.4% year-over-year and deal value rose a whopping 37%, with Q4 posting the highest quarterly numbers ever for both measures. The number of transactions valued at $1 billion or more rose by 28% year-over-year and generated more than half of all deal value. There were also 51 deals of $10 billion or more, totaling $1.1 trillion, led by Netflix’s $82.7 billion agreement to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, and Kimberly Clark’s $48.6 billion purchase of Kenvue.

➨ TAKEAWAY: 2026 is already off to a fast start, with SpaceX’s $250 billion acquisition of xAI earlier this week setting a new record for the biggest M&A deal of all-time. Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty of the past few years persisting, it seems that companies and investors have adjusted to the new paradigm and are back in dealmaking mode. If interest rates come down further, there could be another record year in 2026.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin and Adam Katz discuss their predictions for 2026 in private markets, covering pre-IPO startups, art & collectibles, crypto, and real estate. They discuss the potential resurgence of IPOs, the rebound in the art market, the volatility expected in the crypto landscape, and why 2026 will be a good year for real estate investing. The conversation highlights key investment strategies and trends to watch in the coming year across the four asset classes.

📊 Government shutdown ends: The short-lived partial government shutdown has come to an end after President Trump signed a spending bill that passed both houses of Congress. Still, Friday’s highly anticipated jobs report will now be delayed due to the shutdown, and will presumably be released next week instead.

💵 Hamilton Lane infrastructure fund: The alternative investment manager raised $1.9 billion for its latest infrastructure fund, well above its $1.25 billion target, and it expects a quarter of the capital to be devoted to data centers and digital infrastructure.

🏢 Office prices rebounding: According to CoStar’s Commercial Repeat Sale Indices, value-weighted office prices rose by 3.8% in 2025, a significant turnaround from 2024’s -11.4% decline. Meanwhile, industrial and retails prices only gained 0.4% each, and multifamily prices jumped by 0.7%.

⚾ Heritage winter sports card auction: Last weekend’s auction netted $14.6 million in sales, led by two Babe Ruth rookie cards that both topped $230,000, and a signed Michael Jordan card that sold for $884,500.

🏡 Luxury prices keep rising: Prices for luxury homes, defined as the top 5% of homes in a given metro area, rose by 4.6% year-over-year, more than triple the gain of non-luxury homes. Prices only fell in two markets nationwide - Fort Worth, TX, and Portland, OR.

🎨 Art Basel Qatar kicks off: An important milestone in the global art market was achieved with the first edition of Art Basel Qatar opening to positive reviews but a slow sales day.

The entire crypto market is down more than 13% over the past week, but the second biggest token by market cap, Ethereum, took a significantly larger hit than nearly every other coin in the the top-50. Polymarket traders now place the odds at 50/50 that it will drop below $2,000 in February with a 14% chance of it falling below $1,600. It was only four months ago that it was near $4,700 and approaching its all-time high, but that momentum completely stalled. A new meme is comparing Ethereum’s 5-year returns, which are now fairly modest - it was around $2,000 in February 2021, with those of a McDonald’s McChicken sandwich, which has seen its price go from $1-2 to over $5 in the same time period. Obviously the comparison is tongue-in-cheek, but it is illustrative of the overall sentiment around crypto at the moment.