Alternative Investing Report - February 27, 2025

*as of 2/26; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in January, posting the largest monthly drop since August 2021. While analysts had expected a decline, the size of it was a surprise. The index dropped 7 points to come in at 98.3, compared to a projected 102.3. The proportion of consumers who now expect a recession is at a nine-month high, and 12-month inflation expectations keep rising. This bearishness comes a few days after University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report dropped nearly 10% and also came in well below expectations.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It seems clear that the public has become more pessimistic about the current economy, with labor worries, inflation concerns, and the looming threat of President Trump’s tariffs that are set to go forward in March. The public markets have been struggling, crypto has dropped significantly in the past week, and a flailing economy is not good for any asset class. However, downturns create discounts and savvy investors should stay on the lookout for buying opportunities.

The Premiere Napa Valley wine auction was held by Sotheby’s this past weekend and saw $3.3 million in sales, a 10% increase over last year’s event. The trade-only event focused on 2023 Napa Valley red wines, with 167 of the 194 lots coming from the 2023 vintage.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The results were a positive sign for the wine market, which has struggled for the past few years in the wake of declining levels of drinking. This specific auction is a good bellwether for the mood of the industry, and experts are bullish on the 2023 vintage, with one writer saying “I have no doubt that 2023 will go down as one of the most phenomenal vintages ever in Napa Valley.”

🪙 Bitcoin continues dropping: The cryptocurrency fell as far as $82,000 yesterday before ending the day down 4.5% to around $85,000, as the total crypto market cap declined 3.5%.

🏠 Most popular neighborhoods: The Woodmont neighborhood in Milford, CT ranks as the #1 most desirable neighborhood in the country based on the number of views a typical home listing receives. Most of the top ten are relatively affordable, with some notable exceptions, including #2 Beverly Crest in Los Angeles, CA.

🚀 Femtech VC funding: Tech startups that focus on women’s health issues like fertility and reproductive health care raised $1.2 billion in 2024, a 20% year-over-year gain, finally benefitting from a broader understanding of the challenges and the opportunity.

💵 PE activity stagnating: Despite early optimism in the asset class for the new administration, U.S. private equity activity is down 53% year-over-year as the industry waits for interest rate cuts.

🏢 Targeting empty offices: A notable commercial real estate investor that succeeded by purchasing dying malls is now targeting empty office buildings, acquiring 10 buildings in New York, Chicago, and Cleveland.

🪙 Polkadot ETF: Crypto investment firm Grayscale filed a proposal for a spot ETF of Polkadot, an altcoin in the top-30 by market cap, as it continues to try to expand its publicly traded offerings.

More than 1,000 UK musicians, including Kate Bush, Cat Stevens and Annie Lennox, released a silent album this week to protest the government’s proposed changes to copyright laws that may make it easier for AI models to train on copyrighted material. The proposal would allow AI companies to use material that is available online without respecting copyright, forcing artists to proactively opt-out. Other prominent artists, like Paul McCartney, Ed Sheeran and Dua Lipa, wrote a letter to the Times opposing the proposed changes. The battle between AI companies and creatives over copyright has only just begun and will be an ongoing subplot as the industry develops.

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