Alternative Investing Report - February 25, 2026

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*as of 2/24; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

According to the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices, home prices rose by 1.3% in 2025, the lowest full-year gain since 2011, and well below the 2.7% inflation rate. The top performers by city were Chicago, New York, and Cleveland, with the biggest declines coming in Tampa, Denver, and Phoenix. Meanwhile, the FHFA House Price Index rose by 0.15% in December and is up 1.8% annually, both readings coming in below expectations. When adjusted for inflation, prices actually fell, and are down 0.6% in the past year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The numbers from these two indices, which tend to be more accurate but take months to compile, confirm what other metrics measuring national home prices have shown more recently - price growth is falling behind inflation. The slowdown is good news for buyers, and indeed, it is a buyer’s market, with 44% more sellers than buyers nationwide. With mortgage rates back into the 5s, now might be the time for patient buyers to come off of the sidelines.

🚀 Cerebras files for IPO: The AI chip startup, fresh off a reported $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation, has confidentially filed for a public offering, with the listing potentially coming as early as April. It previously had plans for an IPO last year when it was valued at $8 billion.

🪙 Extreme fear in crypto: Coinmarketcap’s Fear and Greed Index fell to 11, one of the most bearish readings it has ever recorded, as Bitcoin fell more than 50% lower than its all-time high and ETFs continue to record negative outflows.

💵 Private equity drought: Fundraising for the sector fell by 16%, the fourth straight year of declines, and distributions as a percentage of net asset value was just 14%, the second lowest level since 2008.

🤖 Anthropic accuses rivals of theft: The AI giant says that it uncovered evidence that three separate Chinese AI firms have engaged in IP theft using “distillation” methods on its Claude AI model to boost the performance of their own. The accusations speak to the difficulty of establishing defensive moats in the AI sector, and may not engender sympathy, given that Anthropic and others have been accused of massive IP theft themselves.

🍷 Napa wine downturn: The average bottle price at last weekend’s Premiere Napa Valley wine auction was $174, down 39% from 2023. The highest average belonged to Cabernet Franc, which unseated the usual top performer Cabernet Sauvignon.

🏢 Retail opportunities: A new Cushman & Wakefield report points to retail as the top sector in commercial this coming year, with tightening supply, increasing consumer demand and attractive cap rates presenting strong investment opportunities.

Crypto had another tough week, losing 6% of its overall market cap, with major coins all shedding significant value. When downturns like this hit, memecoins tend to take even greater losses, and the biggest drop in the top-100 by market cap belonged to the native token of the Solana memecoin generator Pump.fun. After dropping more than 20% in the last week, it is now at an all-time low and down more than 80% from its all-time high last September. With crypto sentiment at record-low levels and investors fleeing risky assets across the board, there does not seem to be any catalyst for a rebound in the price of memecoins and memecoin-related tokens.