Alternative Investing Report - December 5, 2024

*as of 12/4; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

After weeks of flirting with the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin surpassed it last night, hitting yet another all-time high just under $103,000 as of this writing. The milestone is psychological, but so are much of Bitcoin’s market movements. The leading cryptocurrency is now up 45% since the election and was sitting at $44,000 a year ago.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Some of the price movement is due to Trump’s crypto-friendly pick Paul Atkins to chair the SEC (see below), but some of it is simply due to hitting a round number. The press coverage generated from this will undoubtedly cause more people to become interested in investing, which in turn could lead to a further boost in price. As always, the short-term price will be the result of the battle between profit-taking and FOMO, but for investors who believe in the long-term trajectory, the $100K milestone is nice, but mostly irrelevant.

In case you missed it, Vincent CEO Eric Cantor and Sacra co-founder Jan-Erik Asplund analyzed OpenAI, the American AI giant. They talked about the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and answered investor questions.

Mortgage rates will tick down in 2025, but end the year above 6%, according to Realtor.com’s forecast for next year. They also predict a 3.7% rise in housing prices, sales to grow by 1.1% and the supply of homes for sale to surge by 11.7%. Meanwhile, Redfin forecasts a similar 4% growth in prices in 2025, but they predict sales to rise by as much as 9% and that mortgage rates will stay closer to 7% all year. Both reports see positive news for renters, with Realtor.com projecting a -0.1% decline in asking rents and Redfin expecting asking rents to be flat year-over-year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Both reports are slightly more bullish than Zillow’s forecast, which predicted prices to grow by 2.6%, but all three are not seeing a major recovery for the market next year. Both buyers and sellers have been waiting for mortgage rates to drop, so if they stay flat through 2025, the market is likely to stay relatively stagnant. For investors, the opportunity to buy while the market is depressed could be extended through next year, and with rental growth stalled, more sellers will be looking to dispose of distressed assets.

💼 Trump names SEC chair nominee: The incoming President is tapping Paul Atkins, a former SEC commissioner and the founder and CEO of Patomak Global Partners LLC, a consulting firm for financial and crypto companies, to lead the regulatory agency. He is widely expected to be pro-crypto and will likely cut regulations in other industries as well.

💵 Private credit ETFs: Both BondBloxx (Nasdaq: PCMM) and Virtus Investment Partners (NYSE Arca: PCLO) launched publicly-traded private credit ETFs, giving retail investors access to the asset class.

🚀 SpaceX tender offer: The rocket maker is planning to allow employees to sell shares at a $350 billion valuation, which would make it the world’s most valuable startup. It also represents a substantial gain over the previous tender offer which was at a $210 billion valuation.

🚧 Trump’s construction impact: Both his mass deportation plan and proposed tariffs are likely to negatively affect the construction industry if they are implemented, bringing about labor shortages and increased costs. This will lead to decreased housing supply and continue the ongoing affordability crisis.

⚾ World Series home run ball: Freddie Freeman’s game-winning home run ball from Game 1 of this year’s World Series is now up for sale at SCP auctions. It has already attracted a $325,000 bid and the final price could exceed $1 million.

🪙 Alex Mashinsky pleads guilty: The founder and former CEO of the failed crypto lender Celsius now faces up to 30 years in prison for two counts of fraud and will forfeit $48 million. He will be sentenced next April.

Are weathermen going to be the next casualty of the AI revolution? GenCast, an AI weather forecaster created by Google DeepMind, was up to 20% more accurate than the industry-leading ENS forecast. It was trained on 40 years of historic data and only takes eight minutes to process its forecast, compared to the hours-long process the traditional forecast takes. It was better in both day-to-day weather and in predicting extreme events up to 15 days in advance. For now GenCast will be working in support of ENS, but given how quickly AI is advancing, don’t be surprised if it becomes the primary method of forecasting in the future.

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This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile Reg A offering. Please read the offering statement at https://invest.modemobile.com

¹ Mode Mobile currently has no formal plans for an IPO. 

² A minimum investment of $1,950 is required to receive bonus shares. 100% bonus shares are offered on investments of $9,950+.

³ Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.

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