Alternative Investing Report - December 4, 2025

*as of 12/3 Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Pitchbook released its 2026 outlook for venture capital, which is mostly optimistic, following on the heels of a 2025 that saw a rebound for the industry. The report foresees increased early-stage deal activity while the late-stage stays steady, as well as a fundraising rebound. The liquidity challenges that were plaguing the asset class have been mitigated somewhat by an increase in exit activity and several successful, prominent IPOs. The report forecasts that liquidity will continue to return, echoing an earlier report from asset manager Wellington Management, predicting a further increase in IPO and M&A activity in 2026.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The main story of 2025 in VC has been AI’s dominance, with the sector capturing nearly two-thirds of VC dollars so far, and that does not seem likely to change next year. There was a flight to quality where investors concentrated their bets on more established startups, with megarounds making up the bulk of funding. Pitchbook sees that trend abating slightly in a more risk-on environment, which would benefit earlier-stage companies. Secondary markets are quickly become a bigger and important way for existing investors to access liquidity and new investors to gain access, and that trend should continue in 2026. Everything is heading in the right direction for VC, and rate cuts and a shift towards riskier assets should only help.

📊 Private company job cuts: ADP’s private jobs report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs in November, a stark dropoff from October’s numbers and well below expectations. Counterintuitively, the stock market reacted well to the news, as it increases the odds of a Fed rate cut next week.

🏢 Self storage sales: Deal volume for self storage buildings hit $1.6 billion in Q3, a 62% year-over-year gain, with REITs involved in a quarter of the transactions, mostly as a buyer. New York City saw the highest volume of deals in the quarter, followed by Las Vegas and Atlanta.

🪙 Vanguard allowing crypto: The second-largest asset manager in the world began allowing clients to invest in and trade digital asset ETFs and mutual funds on Tuesday, a watershed moment for the asset class that reflects the growing investor demand for crypto.

🪙 BofA recommends crypto: Bank of America issued a statement recommending its wealth management clients allocate 1-4% of their portfolio to crypto, which along with the Vanguard decision has boosted crypto markets over the past two days.

🚀 Nothing beginning community raise: The consumer hardware startup Nothing raised $200 million at a $1.3 billion valuation in September and is now opening up $5 million to the public at the same valuation on WeFunder and Crowdcube.

🎨 Early Miami sales: Miami’s art week has kicked off with the NADA and Untitled Art fairs, both of which have seen strong attendance and promising sales numbers, particularly for mid-tier and emerging artists.

The nonprofit Future of Life Institute released its Winter 2025 AI Safety Index, which evaluated the safety practices of eight leading AI companies and found all of them lacking in some way. The index evaluated the companies on dozens of metrics, including risk-assessment practices, whistleblowing protections, and support for AI safety research. Anthropic fared the best with a C+ grade, followed by OpenAI and Google, with xAI, Meta, and three Chinese companies - Z.ai, DeepSeek, and AliBaba - bringing up the rear. The overall results are not particularly surprising given the lack of AI regulations which lets for-profit companies police themselves, but it does open up space for a company to differentiate itself by creating robust safety practices. Perhaps OpenAI co-founder llya Sutskever’s new company Safe Superintelligence can be that company, and the name suggests it’s making the attempt.