Alternative Investing Report - December 24, 2025

*as of 12/23; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Gold keeps hitting new record highs in 2025, surpassing the $4,500 per ounce mark for the first time ever yesterday before falling just below it to end the day. The precious metal had never broken $3,000 per ounce until this year, and is now up 70% in 2025, the highest yearly increase since 1979. The price of silver leapt past $70 per ounce for the first time ever as well, and is up 40% in the past month and around 140% on the year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: This year has seen a perfect storm of circumstances that boosted investor demand in precious metals, starting with the Trump tariffs and the weakening U.S. dollar. Economic and geopolitical uncertainty have also sent investors worldwide in search of safe haven assets, and a number of governments and central banks have also been stockpiling gold. And as investors have started to sour on Bitcoin during its bear market, some are turning to the more established store of value in gold.

In this episode, Vincent co-founder Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund discuss the rise of prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and Polymarket. They explore the mechanics of prediction markets, their regulatory landscape, and the competitive dynamics between these platforms. The discussion also touches on the future of prediction markets, their integration into existing trading platforms, and the potential for new market entrants.

📊 Consumer confidence falls: The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 3.8 points in December to 89.1, almost as low as it was in April after President Trump’s first tariff announcement. Despite their sentiment, though, consumers are still spending at a strong pace, so there is some disconnect in the data.

🏡 Sellers outnumbering buyers: There are now an estimated 37% more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market, as 2025 has had the largest gap between the two since at least 2013. The disparity is largely because the number of home buyers is the lowest on record with the exception of April 2020, right after the pandemic began.

🪙 Coinbase expanding prediction markets: After launching its prediction markets last week, the crypto company announced it acquired The Clearing Company, a startup that will help Coinbase scale its prediction market offerings.

🏢 Single tenant retail: Overall transaction volume for single tenant retail properties is up 18% year-over-year. Average cap rates remain high at 6.5%, which has created attractive opportunities for buyers, though they are lower for properties with longer leases and higher-value tenants.

🚀 Erebor fundraise: The stablecoin banking startup co-founded by Anduril founder Palmer Luckey raised $350 million at a $4.35 billion valuation, more than doubling its previous valuation, a week after it received FDIC approval.

⚾ Newly discovered T206 Wagner: The holy grail of baseball card collecting has added to its population count for the first time in 15 years, as a previously unknown single card is coming to auction next month at Goldin. The bidding will start at $1 million but it is expected to go for more than $3 million.

AI was the story of the year, not just in the investing world, as Time Magazine chose the “Architects of AI” as “Person of the Year” for 2025. But the story of the year within the AI world, beyond the massive venture fundraises and rising company values, could very well be the emergence of Google as the new leader in the AI arms race. Its Gemini 3 model and its Nano Banana image generator have overtaken OpenAI’s ChatGPT in effectiveness, and could surpass it soon in popularity, and its AI chip business is expanding rapidly. Google has the advantage of integrating its AI models into its still-dominant search engine and its Android devices. The AI industry is still developing at breakneck speeds, and by the end of 2026, the market landscape is likely to look as different as it does from this time last year.