Alternative Investing Report - December 23, 2024

*as of 12/22; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Global mergers and acquisitions volume is up 15% year-over-year, hitting $3.45 trillion so far in 2024, while U.S. volume is up 10% to $1.55 trillion. Big-money deals also saw a surge, as there have been 37 deals worth $10 billion or more, compared with 32 last year. The volume of private equity leveraged buyouts also jumped by 35% to over $600 billion.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Many top dealmakers and bankers expect next year’s global M&A market to top $4 trillion, as they expect the incoming Trump administration to adopt a pro-business agenda with less regulation. Another factor is that many notable startups are staying private longer, which could force PE firms looking for liquidity to make more deals in lieu of IPOs.

In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin talks with Cambria Investment Management’s CEO and founder Meb Faber about the ideal portfolio allocation, his 2025 outlook, and why investors should look at emerging markets.

Young NBA star Victor Wembanyama leads all athletes with over 407,000 cards graded by authentication company PSA in 2024, showing how in demand his cards are. Michael Jordan placed second with 269,000, followed by the NFL’s CJ Stroud and MLB superstar Shohei Ohtani. Meanwhile, WNBA star Caitlin Clark led all women athletes by a significant margin. Basketball cards saw a 77% increase in grading volume in 2024, and PSA is on pace to grade over 15 million cards this year.

➨ TAKEAWAY: In just his 2nd year, Wembanyama has become a rising global superstar, and his popularity among collectors shows that many people are still playing the speculation game, preferring young players over established superstars, though Jordan, Kobe Bryant (6th) and LeBron James (7th) still showed staying power. Stroud and fellow young quarterback Anthony Richardson were the top two football players, while veterans like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were nowhere to be seen. Clark had a breakout year and how her cards fare will be something to watch in 2025.

🪙 Stablecoin growth: The market cap for U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins is up 50% so far in 2024, and a pro-crypto government should spur further demand in 2025, which bodes well for both the crypto market and companies like USDC issuer Circle.

🏡 Zillow’s Zestimate: While Zillow’s well-known home pricing algorithm remains popular among the public, it is notoriously inaccurate and industry insiders caution that it is simply a marketing tool for Zillow.

🚘 Rare Bugatti: One of only ten 2022 Bugatti Centodiecis ever produced will be auctioned at Sotheby’s next February and carries a high estimate of $15.6 million.

🚀 Oura closes funding round: The healthtech startup known for its smart ring announced a $200 million Series D round at a $5.2 billion valuation, doubling its $2.6 billion valuation from 2022.

💵 Private credit to double: Apollo’s global head of credit product said that the private credit market has reached the $20 trillion mark and is expected to hit $40 trillion by 2030.

Monday: Consumer confidence index released.

Tuesday: New home sales report released, market closes early for Christmas Eve.

Wednesday: Christmas; Hanukkah begins at sunset.

Thursday: Kwanzaa begins.

Saturday: Goldin’s December Elite Auction; Heritage’s Sports Showcase Auction.