Alternative Investing Report - December 2, 2024

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*as of 12/1; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Pending U.S. home sales, meaning those that are under contract, are up 12.1% in the past four weeks, the biggest increase since May 2021, according to Redfin. Mortgage applications are also up 12%, but Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index dropped by 5% overall. Earlier data from the National Association of Realtors showed that pending sales rose by 2% in October. All four regions of the country showed growth, with the West showing the largest year-over-year increase.

➨ TAKEAWAY: This post-election breakout could signal a reviving market, though early-stage demand dropping could be reflected in next month’s pending sales data. It also remains to be seen how the pending sales data translates into the actual existing and new home sales data next month. Housing inventory is up, with new listings rising 10.6% year-over-year, which might translate to lower or stagnant prices, and could attract more buyers to the market.

Bonhams is offering a Roman antiquity at its auction this Thursday that was allegedly looted, causing calls for it to be withdrawn from the sale. A prominent archaeologist has linked the 3rd century plate to an antiquities dealer who has been convicted in multiple countries of selling stolen items. This is the second time Bonhams has offered the plate for sale, fetching $94,720 in a July sale, but the high bidder didn’t pay. The plate is now estimated at between $25,000 and $37,000.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Bonhams has denied the archaeologist’s claims, but it is clear the issues with the plate’s provenance have diminished its market value considerably. Looting is a known problem in the antiquities market, so buyers need to be extremely careful and avoid items that have provenance questions. Auction houses do not always carry out extensive research on every item, and even with their best efforts, items are bound to slip through the cracks.

Interested in investing in pre-IPO unicorns? Join us on Tuesday, December 3 at 11 AM ET to learn all about OpenAI, the American AI giant. Vincent CEO Eric Cantor and Jan-Erik Asplund, Pre-IPO analyst at Sacra, will dig into the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and answer investor questions.

🪙 Hong Kong tax exemptions: The Chinese-controlled territory is proposing that hedge funds, private equity firms and family offices be exempt from taxes on gains from crypto, private credit and other alternative assets.

🥃 Kentucky alcohol auction: The state of Kentucky is auctioning off confiscated bottles of alcohol for the first time, which include rare and hard-to-find bottles of bourbon. The auction closes December 11, but winners have to pick up their lots in person in Frankfort.

🏢 Crowdfunding fraud: Elie Schwartz, the CEO of Nightingale Properties, is facing federal charges after being accused of misappropriating $54 million raised through the platform CrowdStreet.

🚀 States on the rise: While California still dominates the venture space, startups in Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Kentucky, Montana, Oregon and Vermont all saw significant increases in funding this year.

💵 Fortress buys UK pubs: The private equity giant is acquiring the pub and restaurant chain Loungers for $428 million, representing a sizable bet on the retail and hospitality sector.

🪙 Kraken gives up on NFTs: The crypto exchange is sunsetting its NFT marketplace, placing it in withdrawal-only mode before shutting it down completely next February. Declining interest in NFTs and potential SEC enforcement action seem to be the main factors in the decision.

Today: Cyber Monday, which is projected to see over $13 billion in spending.

Thursday: Heritage’s Winter Sports Catalog auction, featuring a sealed case of 1979 O-Pee-Chee hockey cards, which carries an estimate of more than $3 million.

Friday: U.S. jobs report is released; deadline for a court to rule on whether ByteDance must sell TikTok.

Saturday: Goldin’s November Elite Auction, featuring multiple six-figure LeBron James cards.

Sunday: Robert Edwards Fall 2024 auction, featuring a rare 1916 Babe Ruth rookie card that has already been bid up past $500,000.