Alternative Investing Report - November 20, 2025

*as of 11/19; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

According to Redfin, the U.S. is now in the best buyer’s market in more than a decade, as there are now 36.8% more sellers than buyers. Of the 50 biggest metro areas, 35 are now in buyer’s markets, with the strongest ones coming in Texas and Florida, and the best markets for sellers coming in the New York City suburbs. Not coincidentally, home prices are growing at the slowest rate since 2012, with Texas and Florida cities seeing the biggest declines. The average home that sold last month went for 1.5% less than its final list price, showing the power buyers currently have in the market.

➨ TAKEAWAY: With mortgage rates still high and buying power limited, sellers are finally giving in to the market conditions and accepting lower prices. Zillow projects just a 1.2% appreciation rate over the next 12 months, so buyers may continue to have the upper hand in the short-term. Of course, real estate is local, and some metro areas are faring better than others in the current market.

Vincent co-founder Slava Rubin and Sacra's Jan-Erik Asplund discuss the rise of prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and Polymarket. They explore the mechanics of prediction markets, their regulatory landscape, and the competitive dynamics between these platforms. The discussion also touches on the future of prediction markets, their integration into existing trading platforms, and the potential for new market entrants.

🤖 New Anthropic valuation: As part of a new partnership between Microsoft, Nvidia, and Anthropic, the AI startup is now valued at $350 billion, nearly double the $183 billion valuation from September.

🏢 Multifamily cap rates: Market fundamentals are pointing towards cap rate compression in 2026 for the multifamily sector, which will lead to higher property values in a segment that already led commercial real estate in annualized returns in Q3.

🪙 Kraken IPO: The crypto exchange announced an $800 million fundraise at a $20 billion valuation, nearly 50% higher than its previous round, and then announced that it has filed with the SEC to go public.

🎨 Golden toilet buyer: Artist and provocateur Maurizio Cattelan’s “America,” the functional toilet made from more than 220 pounds of 18-karat gold, was sold for $12.1 million two nights ago, and it turns out the buyer was fittingly, Ripley’s Believe It or Not! which plans to display it publicly.

🚀 Examining major 2025 IPOs: In looking back at CoreWeave, Circle, Figma, Klarna, and Netskope, for all the companies but CoreWeave, returns were significantly higher for late stage pre-IPO investors than for those that bought at IPO.

💵 AI bubble affecting private credit: The stock market downturn and fears of an AI bubble are leading to a more cautious investing environment, which is starting to affect the private credit market as debt investors are turning away from riskier assets.

Last week, Anthropic announced that it had thwarted a “highly sophisticated” AI-led espionage campaign that took place in mid-September, most likely by a Chinese state-sponsored group. It is the first known time that a large scale cyber attack has been conducted primarily by AI tools without major human intervention. The attack targeted dozens of global institutions, including large tech companies, banks, and government agencies. Anthropic detected the unusual activity and eventually banned accounts, coordinated with authorities, and instituted new defensive measures. The concern is that as AI models get better and better, they will be able to penetrate defenses set up by AI companies to prevent this type of usage. Fully autonomous hackers sounds like science fiction, but this is the world we live in now.