Alternative Investing Report - November 19, 2024

*as of 11/18; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Sotheby’s began the New York fall art auction season last night, with the first Sydell Miller Collection auction and its Modern Evening auction. The Sydell Miller auction brought in $215.9 million, led by the $65.5 million sale of Claude Monet’s “Nympheas.” The Modern Evening Auction saw $101.6 million in sales, with the most notable sale being the Tiffany Studio’s Danner Memorial Window, which sold for $12.5 million, doubling its estimate and setting a new all-time record for a Tiffany Studios piece.

➨ TAKEAWAY: On the whole, these were mixed results. The Sydell Miller auction exceeded expectations, seeing all 25 of its lots sell, with more than half going for above the high estimate. On the other hand, the Modern Evening auction saw mostly tepid results, coming in at the low end of the pre-sale estimate of $93 million - $135 million, with just seven of its 31 lots exceeding their high estimate. Many more high-profile auctions are to come this week, and the results will go a long way in determining the current state of the art market.

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Homebuilder sentiment improved for the third straight month, with the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index hitting 46, where 50 represents neutral sentiment. So, sentiment is still slightly negative, but this result was better than expected and is the highest level since April. Additionally, expectations for the number of new home sales over the next six months rose dramatically, hitting its highest level since April 2022.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The lack of election uncertainty and the results of the election itself are largely responsible for the increase in sentiment, as there is a belief that the incoming administration will relax regulations to allow for more construction. On the other hand, mortgage rates remain high and could stay that way, as many of Trump’s policies could have an inflationary effect and discourage the Fed from cutting rates in 2025.

🪙 NFT volume nearly doubles: Weekly sales hit $181 million, 94% higher than the week before, as tokens on Ethereum led the way with $67 million in sales, followed by tokens on Bitcoin at $60 million. With the crypto market rising, interest in NFTs has followed along after sales volume hit a monthly low in September.

⌚ Titanic pocket watch: A gold Tiffany & Co. watch given to the captain of a boat that rescued survivors from the wreck sold for nearly $2 million, setting a new record for any piece of Titanic memorabilia.

🏢 Office defaults double: Delinquencies for CMBS loans backed by U.S. office buildings hit 10.35% in October, more than double the rate from the year before and the highest since August 2012.

🎨 Young artists not featuring: Only six artists born in the 1990s and five born in the 1980s are among the 120 across the major contemporary evening sales this week in New York, as auction houses have become reticent to showcase ultra-contemporary artists as buyers shy away from riskier assets.

🚀 Fintech funding: In Q3, VC funding for the retail fintech industry dropped by 44% quarterly and 39% year-over-year, as the sector continues to struggle to attract investment.

🏡 Best places to retire: Naples, FL topped the U.S. News rankings of the best places in the U.S. to retire, followed by Virginia Beach and New York City, as Florida and southern states made up the majority of the top-10.

A vacant, graffiti covered building in Portland, OR could be yours, if you are looking to rehab a 27,000 square-foot commercial property. Known as “Gordon’s Fireplace Building,” it is centrally located right off I-84 and the interior has been cleaned up. It last sold for $2.7 million in 2017, but the auction has an opening bid of just $225,000. It is scheduled to start December 16th and end on the 18th.