Alternative Investing Report - November 18, 2024

*as of 11/17; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Embattled SEC chair Gary Gensler is reportedly going to resign by the end of the month in the wake of the election results, even though his term does not expire until 2026. A noted thorn in the side of the crypto industry, he has taken on criticism for the SEC’s stances on crypto and last week was sued by 18 state attorneys general for “regulatory overreach.”

➨ TAKEAWAY: A new SEC chair would undoubtedly share the new administration’s stance on crypto, which the market has reacted favorably to. Authorities are already scaling back the resources being devoted to crypto-related enforcement, and this trend should continue. If and when Gensler officially steps down, expect another positive jolt to the ecosystem and prices to rise. However, his departure would clear the way for less regulation, which means investors need to be even more vigilant about doing their own research in a notoriously fraud-filled space.

The influential startup accelerator Y Combinator released its requests for startups, as it encourages applications in the following categories: Government software, Public safety technology, Manufacture in the USA, Stablecoins 2.0, LLMs for chip design, Fintech 2.0, New space companies, AI-aided engineering tools, and One million jobs 2.0.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Y Combinator’s preferences can be read as a list of industries that the greater VC world will be looking to in 2025 and beyond, with AI a prominent part, but not the only part. As VC funding has diminished and startups are seeing longer gaps between funding rounds, it is important to know what sectors influential companies like Y Combinator believe are the future of the tech industry.

Interested in investing in private companies? Join us today at 11 AM ET to dig into the business overview of Stripe, Stripe, the global payments platform last valued at $95 billion. Co-founder Slava Rubin of Vincent and Marcelo Ballvé, Pre-IPO analyst at Sacra, will dig into the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and answer investor questions. The session is free but slots are limited.

🦕 “Vulcain” dinosaur sells: The 70-foot long Apatosaurus skeleton sold for $6.4 million on Saturday, above the pre-sale high estimate of $5.2 million, but below some projections that bidding would reach as high as $22 million.

🤖 xAI fundraise: The Elon Musk-led AI startup is reportedly raising $6 billion at a $50 billion valuation, more than twice its previous valuation of $24 billion in May.

🏢 Commercial lending surging: Commercial mortgage originations in Q3 were 44% higher than in Q2 and 56% higher than in 2023 as buyers and owners alike took advantage of the brief dip in mortgage rates in September. Rates are back up, but it is clear that there is pent-up demand so expect increased activity the next time rates drop.

🚀 Family offices target secondaries: As private equity and venture capital firms seek liquidity, family offices with longer investment horizons are taking advantage and getting discounted shares in secondary markets.

📜 Thou shalt bid: A 1500-year old, two-foot tall marble tablet inscribed with the Ten Commandments is being auctioned off at Sotheby’s in December with an estimated price tag of $1 million - $2 million.

💵 Venture debt deal value: Total lending to startups has already exceeded 2023’s total and is on track to hit an all-time high, as VC funding falls and non-bank lenders fill the gap. Deal count has hit a 10-year low, though, as lenders prefer to deal with established growth-stage companies rather than early-stage ones.

This week: The major New York Fall Art auctions take place, with Sotheby’s Sydell Miller Collection and Modern Evening auctions (Monday), Christie’s MICA collection and 20th Century Evening Sale and Phillips’ Modern and Contemporary Art Evening Sale (Tuesday), Sotheby’s Contemporary Evening auction and Bonham’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sale (Wednesday), and Christie's 21st Century Evening Sale (Thursday) leading the way.

Monday: The G20 summit begins in Brazil.

Wednesday: The International Network of AI Safety Institutes meets in San Francisco; Nvidia releases its earnings report.

Thursday: Existing home sales report is released; Fanatics Collect Premier Auction, featuring a 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth card estimated to sell for $1.5 million - $3 million.

Saturday: SCP’s 2024 Fall Premier auction, featuring a pair of Michael Jordan’s game-worn shorts with a pre-sale estimate of $500,000.