Alternative Investing Report - November 12, 2024

*as of 11/11; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Just a day after surpassing the $80,000 mark for the first time, Bitcoin came very close to $90,000, topping $89,000 and continuing to set all-time highs. Dogecoin was up another 44% and has risen over 140% on the week, hitting a 3-year high. Net inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs hit record-highs, indicating high investor demand.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The election results combined with the Fed rate cut have set off a short-term bull run, with betting markets now forecasting Bitcoin to top $100,000 by the end of the year - which Smart Humans guest Anthony Scaramucci predicted back in September. Right now, investor FOMO is pushing markets higher, with CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index indicating “Extreme greed.” Be aware that the market is already pricing in Trump administration policy proposals that may not ever materialize, and at some point investors will take profits.

Interested in investing in private companies? Join us on Monday at 11 AM ET to dig into the business overview of Stripe, Stripe, the global payments platform last valued at $95 billion. Co-founder Slava Rubin of Vincent and Marcelo Ballvé, Pre-IPO analyst at Sacra, will dig into the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and answer investor questions. Briefing is free but slots are limited.

Phillips held two watch auctions in Geneva this past weekend that achieved a $58 million in sales, the second-highest in the auction house’s history. The centerpiece item, a F.P. Journe Tourbillon Souverain à Remontoire d’Egalité, sold for $8.3 million, a new record for the brand and the highest sale ever by an independent watchmaker. It sold for well above its estimates, as did most of the eight watches that went for $1 million or more.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The auction attracted 1,000 in-person attendees and 2,000 more online from 64 different countries. Watches and other luxury collectibles correlate strongly to both the equities and crypto markets, and the recent pump in both could be one of the catalysts for last weekend’s strong performance. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index is down 5.1% in the past year, and 16.6% in the past two years, but a turnaround could be on the horizon.

🏌️‍♂️World’s oldest golf club: A golf iron dating back to the 1500s is going to be auctioned off this month at Golden Age auctions. The last comparable sale for a similar club was for $1.25 million in 1994, so it’s expected that this one is going to go for considerably more.

🏢 Multifamily starts plummet: New multifamily construction is down 50% from 2022 and 2023 numbers, though the number of buildings under construction is still high, with forecasted completions being revised up by 8% in 2025 and 6% in 2026. Supply will keep growing for now, but a sharp drop off is coming by 2027.

🤖 AI under Trump: It is expected that the new administration is going to try to get rid of the Biden administration’s AI policy framework, and is unlikely to pass any strong regulations. However, Trump’s proposed tariffs could have a negative impact on the industry if they target tech items necessary to build and research AI.

🚜 Why Bowery failed: The one-time indoor farming unicorn previously valued at $2.3 billion was undone by pathogens, premium pricing, and declining VC funding - with the final blow coming when Whole Foods terminated its partnership.

🎨 Boy Scouts art auction: More than 300 works owned the by organization, including dozens by Norman Rockwell, will be sold in the coming years, with the first set coming this month at Heritage Auctions.

🚀 Swiggy IPO: The Indian food delivery service is set to go public tomorrow, and having raised $1.4 billion, it will be a good bellwether for whether large Indian tech companies can see success after big public offerings.

A fully functional but unnamed Kentucky whiskey distillery is up for sale as part of a court-mediated settlement. The buyer gets the distillery, complete with private club and tasting space, the award-winning brand and all assets. This includes 1,300 barrels of aging spirits and existing unsold bottles. The company is debt-free and had $4.6 million in revenue and $3 million in net income in 2023. A sealed-bid auction is set to take place on December 10 at 4 PM ET, so get those bids ready.