Alternative Investing Report - November 1, 2024

*as of 10/31; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, 30YM

The number of homes for sale in October rose by 29% to the highest level since 2019. It was the 12th consecutive month of growth, with a surge in areas that saw high inbound migration during the pandemic. Austin, Memphis and Orlando all now have more inventory than in pre-pandemic times.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The spike in listings is partially due to the brief decrease in mortgage rates after the Fed rate cut spurred would-be sellers to pull the trigger and list their homes. New listings were up 5% year-over-year, and houses are taking longer to sell, leading to the rise in inventory. This is good news for potential buyers, and even though home prices stayed flat in October, the increase in supply is likely to push prices down in the short-term.

Over the past six presidential election cycles, U.S. startup funding tended to increase in the year after the election, across all stages of investment. The two exceptions came in 2001, which featured the dot-com bubble bursting and the 9/11 attack, and 2009, in the wake of the financial crisis.

➨ TAKEAWAY: It is not surprising that investors would rather wait to see who gets elected before deploying capital, as certain policies could lead to a more favorable or unfavorable overall investing environment, or impact particular sectors. There is also optimism with an incoming administration, and there will be a new President no matter which candidate wins. Combine that with a lower interest rate environment, and it augurs well for 2025 to be a big year for startup funding.

In this episode of Smart Humans, guest host and Vincent CEO Eric Cantor talks with Vincent co-founder Slava Rubin about his investment philosophy, his overweight allocation to private markets, thoughts on early-stage startups and why he loves entrepreneurs.

🤖 xAI raise: Elon Musk’s AI company is reportedly pursuing a multi-billion dollar raise at a valuation of $40 billion, a substantial jump from its $24 billion price in May.

📊 PCE report: The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, showed inflation at 2.1% on a yearly basis, in line with expectations and just above the Fed’s 2% target. This print makes it likely that the Fed will continue to cut rates when it meets again next week.

🪙 Microstrategy’s $42 billion plan: The business intelligence company with a Bitcoin addiction wants to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy more BTC, adding to its existing stash of $18 billion of the coin. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor is one of the most well-known Bitcoin bulls, and it is clear he intends to more than double down on his company’s holdings.

🐭 $500K Mickey Mouse card: A 2023 Topps Chrome Mickey Mouse 1 of 1 card sold for $500,000, shattering the old record for a Disney card of $40,383. This sale shows that valuable trading cards don’t always have to be sports or game-related.

💰 Another gold record: The price for an ounce of gold reached $2,790, an all-time record, as election uncertainty reaches it peak and investors flock to safer assets.

🎨 AI authentication: A Swiss auction house is selling artworks that have been authenticated by a Swiss AI company called Art Recognition, which could mark the start of a new trend in the art market.

Monday: 🚀 VC megadeals, 💰 Gold hits record high
Tuesday: 🪙 Bitcoin hits $70K, 🚀 Fintech 100 released
Wednesday: 💵 Private credit boom, 🏡 Housing prices update
Thursday: 🚀 IPOs look to 2025, 🏡 Mortgage rates rise

Have a great weekend! Daylight saving time ends on Sunday at 2 AM, so don’t forget to set your clocks back.