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Happy Thursday. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, Anthropic’s S-1 revealed some interesting data, new home sales dipped, and AI-generated ads are changing politics. Let's dive in!
🎫 Register: For our upcoming investor briefing on the highly anticipated Anthropic IPO, which could be the biggest public offering in history.
This issue is brought to you by Kalshi - hedge your risks.
📈 DAILY MARKETS
📊 FED RATE DECISION
In a 10-2 decision, the Federal Reserve elected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, with the two dissenters voting for a quarter-point increase. The Fed still raised concerns about inflation and reiterated its 2% target, but did not feel the need to raise rates right now. The decision had been expected, with markets pricing in only a 10% chance of a hike, and the stock market and crypto markets had a muted reaction.
➨ TAKEAWAY: The midterm elections coming next week could have influenced the decision to hold rates steady, as an increase could have hurt markets and potentially affected how people would vote. Most observers expect the Fed to raise rates at the next meeting in December, with CME’s FedWatch tool putting the odds at 80%. The median expectations for where rates will sit by the end of 2027 is between 50 and 75 basis points higher than now - meaning this break from rate hikes is likely temporary.
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📺 UPCOMING EVENT
Join Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund for a closer look at AI giant Anthropic before its anticipated IPO. The discussion will cover the company’s business, valuation, growth, and competitive positioning, while exploring the capital flows and market dynamics surrounding its public debut. The session also evaluates available financial data and the long-term market opportunity ahead.
11/11 at 12 PM ET
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🤖 Anthropic numbers: With the AI startup filing to go public early this week, a lot of data about its business has been revealed, including its revenue and debt numbers and its future voting structure. Interestingly, Amazon could end up owning as much as 20% of Anthropic’s shares, and Google holds around 7% with the option to buy $10 billion more at the IPO price.
🏡 New home sales fall: New single-family home sales fell 0.6% last month in the U.S., and are down 5.3% year-over-year, as elevated mortgage rates continue to cool buyer demand and discourage builders. The median sale price also dropped 3.9% year-over-year, as builders have both cut prices and built smaller homes.
🏢 Industrial leasing recovery: The U.S. industrial new lease count has climbed back even with its historical peak, driven primarily by strong demand from tenants for spaces over 200,000 square feet. Meanwhile, renewal activity has declined, keeping net absorption rates steady on the whole.
🚀 Bedrock Robotics raise: The autonomous construction vehicle startup raised $600 million at a $4.1 billion valuation, more than double its $1.75 billion valuation from February.
🎨 Major Klimt painting: As its centerpiece for its marquee evening sale next month in New York, Christie's is offering Gustav Klimt's “Litzlbergkeller,” which carries a $60 million - $80 million pre-sale estimate and is guaranteed to sell. The painting last sold for $14.7 million in 1997.
📜 Mason-Dixon map: The original hand-drawn chart of the Mason-Dixon Line is being sold by Brunk Auctions today, and carries a pre-sale estimate of $800,000 - $1.2 million. The survey dates to the 1760s, when it was used to settle a border dispute between Maryland and Pennsylvania before becoming better known as the dividing line between the North and the South during the Civil War.
🤖 AI CORNER
Election Day is next Tuesday in the U.S., and AI is already playing a significant role as a political issue, with data centers and AI in general proving unpopular and politicians nationwide campaigning against it. But it is also playing a more direct role in a number of campaigns, with AI-generated political ads starting to blanket the airwaves. At least 220 ads made with or enhanced by AI have aired at a cost of $137 million in spending, of which only 27% revealed they were AI-generated and 81% were used by Republicans. Right now there is scant regulation on the use of deepfakes and AI in ads, and undoubtedly there are plenty of voters who are fooled into thinking the ads are real. This deception is a real issue and it will only get worse until actual legislation is passed to prevent it.
