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Happy Monday. A new French auction record was set, OpenAI is aiming for a lower valuation, consumer sentiment stayed near all-time lows, and Bitcoin dipped below $80,000. Let’s dive in!
🎫 Register: For our upcoming investor briefing on the highly anticipated Anthropic IPO, which could be the biggest public offering in history.
This issue is brought to you by Kalshi - hedge your risks.
📈 WEEKLY MARKETS
🎨 PARIS ART AUCTIONS
On Thursday, a Claude Monet painting, “Iris,” sold for $56.2 million at Sotheby’s in Paris, setting a new all-time record for the most expensive artwork sold at auction in France. The sale nearly doubled the pre-sale high estimate of $33.7 million, and was part of a trend that saw 3/4th of the lots at the auction sell for above their high estimate. Sotheby’s Friday evening sales brought in an additional $70.9 million for a total of $154.6 million, the highest ever total for its Paris fall auction series and right at the pre-sale high estimate. Meanwhile, Christie’s major sales brought in $120 million, also on the high side of pre-sale estimates, and well above last year’s total.
➨ TAKEAWAY: The record-breaking results in Paris continue a strong year for the art market along with the momentum from last week in London. The auction houses are increasingly seeking safety in blue-chip masterworks rather than highly speculative contemporary and ultra-contemporary art. Ultimately, the success of the year and the definitive barometer of the health of the market will come next month when the major New York auctions close out the year.
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📺 UPCOMING EVENT
Join Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund for a closer look at AI giant Anthropic before its anticipated IPO. The discussion will cover the company’s business, valuation, growth, and competitive positioning, while exploring the capital flows and market dynamics surrounding its public debut. The session also evaluates available financial data and the long-term market opportunity ahead.
Coming in November - date may shift while timing is clarified
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🤖 OpenAI funding round: In advance of a possible 2027 IPO, the AI giant is reportedly nearing a $30 billion funding round at a $1.25 trillion valuation, below earlier reports of a $1.4 trillion valuation and below what rival Anthropic is reportedly targeting for its IPO. The reduction in OpenAI’s targeted valuation could be a warning sign that investors are becoming wary of how quickly values in the sector are growing.
📊 Consumer sentiment stays low: U.S. consumer sentiment hit its second-lowest level ever, slightly below September’s reading, as grocery and gas prices continue to rise. Consumers also expect inflation to rise even further over the next year.
🪙 Bitcoin drops below $80K: The cryptocurrency dipped below $80,000 for the first time in over a month, as emergency U.S. personnel evacuations in the Middle East made investors skittish. The price recovered on Sunday but the momentum from the mid-August rise seems to have slowed.
⚾ Disappointing Wagner auction: A restored T206 Honus Wagner sold for $1.98 million, below high expectations of $3 million. The famed card went for barely above both its $1.98 million sale in April and a $1.97 million sale in September 2023. The result speaks to the relative stature of restored cards versus the much more sought-after untouched versions. The Heritage auction also featured multiple records for Mickey Mantle cards.
💵 Retail alts marketplaces: Both iCapital and CAIS, the two biggest retail alternative asset marketplaces, are seeing rapid growth, and now count nearly 6,000 wealth management firms as clients between them.
🏡 Inventory still rising: The amount of active U.S. housing listings increased by 7.7% year-over-year, the fastest pace in nine months, despite the 5.1% annual decrease in new listings. This points to a market where older listings are just sitting on the market as buyers stay on the sidelines due to elevated mortgage rates.
📆 LOOKING FORWARD
This week: The World Series between the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays continues.
Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller home price index and FHFA house price index released; Consumer confidence index released; new home sales report released.
Wednesday: The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision — CME FedWatch places a 90% chance that they will hold rates steady.
Thursday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Core PCE indices, the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics, released.
Saturday: Halloween - get your costumes ready!
Sunday: U.S. Daylight Saving Time ends at 2 AM and clocks will fall back one hour.
