Alternative Investing Report - October 2, 2024

_{*as of 10/1}

Only 2.5% of U.S. houses have been sold so far this year, the lowest turnover rate in at least the past three decades, which represents a 31% drop in turnover since the last pre-pandemic year of 2019. High mortgage rates, low supply and political uncertainty are the main factors, as listings are also at the lowest level since at least 2012, the first year that data was tracked. Phoenix saw the highest turnover, while Los Angeles, Boston and San Francisco saw the lowest.

➨ TAKEAWAY: This data is a clear indication of how stagnant the housing market has been this year. There are hopes that the recent Fed rate cut will jump-start the market, as there is still a lot of pent-up buying and selling demand. When the market does restart, activity could jump quickly, and competition will be greater for both buyers and sellers, so getting in ahead of that could be beneficial.

NFL legend Tom Brady has teamed up with Sotheby’s to auction off The GOAT Collection on December 10 in New York City. The lots will be a mix of game-used memorabilia and luxury watches, with 27 of the latter carrying an estimated value of $6 million. The most valuable of the items announced so far are a custom-made Audemars Piquet Royal Oak watch valued at $400,000-$800,000 and a game-used college jersey from Michigan valued at $300,000-$500,000.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Brady has been involved in the Fanatics/Sotheby’s partnership, and this takes it a step further as the auction house continues its foray into sports memorabilia. Luxury watches have seen their prices fall significantly since the pandemic, but total sales are up 6% in 2024 so far. Provenance is important in the world of art and collectibles, and Brady’s high-profile status should boost interest in the auction.

In the latest episode of Smart Humans, SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci joined Vincent co-founder Slava Rubin to discuss the upcoming election and his investment predictions, including how high he thinks Bitcoin will go. Listen now!

🚀 U.S. vs. Europe VC: While European funds recorded a -1.6% one-year IRR compared to the -4.9% IRR for U.S. funds, U.S. funds have had the advantage over five and ten-year horizons due to a more robust ecosystem that leads to better exits. Additionally, in Q1 2024, U.S. funds posted a 1.9% return, while European funds saw a -15.7% decline.

🎨 Auction sales by categories: Postwar and contemporary art saw the most volume in the first half of 2024, generating $2 billion in sales, a drop of 21% from H1 2023. Meanwhile, the Old Masters category fell by 38% and ultra-contemporary fell by 39%.

🏡 Top college towns: Many of the cities where the top 10 U.S. colleges are located, such as Stanford’s Palo Alto, have pricey housing markets, with five of them boasting median house prices over $1 million.

🪙 Trump’s crypto platform opens: World Liberty Financial is now accepting signups from U.S. accredited investors and non-U.S. investors, though it is still unclear what exactly the platform is expected to offer.

🚀 Lightspeed funds: The prominent VC firm, which was an early investor in Snap, Nest, and Stripe, among others, is raising three new funds totaling $7 billion.

🏢 SF real estate: Another prominent investor, Greenoaks Capital co-founder Neil Mehta, has been buying up commercial real estate in San Francisco, following the lead of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Celestia is a modular blockchain and provider of data availability that is designed to allow anyone to launch their own blockchain. Last week, it raised $100 million in a round led by Bain Capital Crypto to help it achieve the goals on its roadmap. In a case of investors “selling the news,” the price of TIA, Celestia’s native token, has plummeted in the last week, posting the largest loss of any coin in the top-100 by market cap. October may also see further losses, as over 80% of its circulating supply will unlock later this month and early investors will get a chance to cash out.