In partnership with
Happy Monday. The major London art sales showed encouraging results, cybersecurity had a big Q3, CoreWeave’s debt has reached distressed levels, and Applied Intuition’s valuation is doubling. Let’s dive in!
🎤 Listen: To the latest episode of Smart Humans, where Slava Rubin talks to Star Mountain CEO Brett Hickey about investing into lower middle-market businesses.
This issue is brought to you by Kalshi - hedge your risks.
📈 WEEKLY MARKETS
🎨 LONDON ART AUCTIONS
London’s fall art week concluded with major sales at Sotheby’s and Christie’s, with the latter setting a new house record for a single-owner sale in London. In total the two major sales at Christie’s brought in $289.4 million, more than double last year’s total and just above the pre-sale high estimate of $278 million. The top sellers were a $41.8 million Kandinsky and a $33.4 million Mondrian, but seven auction records were set for various artists. Sotheby’s evening sale was more modest, totaling $61.1 million against pre-sale estimates of $55.3-$77.8 million, slightly below last year’s total. It was led by a $12.9 million De Kooning painting.
➨ TAKEAWAY: The results were encouraging but not overwhelming in what has largely been a good year for the art market. More data will come this week as Paris Art Week kicks off in the lead up to the major November sales in New York.
Partner
The ice cream shop that makes money when it's cold
28 Wishes sells ice cream in Los Angeles. Below 70°F, sales fall about 20%. The weather is out of their hands. Rent isn't.
So the owners started putting about $20 a day into Kalshi weather markets, taking the cold side. The days that keep customers away now pay something back.
This is hedging. Big companies have done it for decades, buying protection against bad weather, fuel spikes and rising rates. It used to take a broker, a trading desk, and an order size no corner shop could meet.
Kalshi opens it up. Contracts on weather, fuel prices, inflation, tariffs and regulation, starting at a few dollars. Take a position on the outcome that would hurt you. If it hits, the payout softens it. If it doesn't, the contract expires and the good month was the point.
🎤 PODCAST
"People will still want to fix their sewer, their plumbing, their garage doors, and so forth." - Brett Hickey
In the newest episode of Smart Humans, Slava Rubin with Star Mountain Capital CEO and Founder Brett Hickey about the world of lower middle-market private investing and finding resilient businesses.
📰 NOTABLE NEWS
🚀 Cybersecurity funding jumps: Led by big rounds from Keyfactor, Island, and Cyera, VC funding to the cybersecurity sector grew 50% in Q3 to a total of $6.8 billion, tied for the highest quarter in years. There were fewer deals overall, though, as the trend of fewer, larger rounds across VC continued.
💵 CoreWeave distressed debt: The public AI company has been taking on a lot of debt to build out data centers and the yields keep rising to above 15% with its credit default swaps hitting a distressed level. This development is not encouraging for private credit, and it shows a lack of confidence in the AI sector from debt investors.
🤖 Applied Intuition valuation: The physical AI startup that develops self-driving software is reportedly in talks for a new funding round at a $30 billion valuation, which would be double its valuation from June 2025.
🏢 Two Sigma shuts down CRE division: The quantitative hedge fund is shutting down the real estate unit it started in 2019 after a failed fundraise. It attempted to predict supply and demand patterns in CRE markets but started at a tough time for the sector.
⚾ T206 Honus Wagner up for sale: One of the holy grails of baseball card collecting is being auctioned this weekend at Heritage, as a restored 1909 T206 Honus Wagner with a PSA Authentic grade goes on the block with a $3 million estimated price tag. A SGC Authentic sold for $5.8 million earlier this year but collectors do not value restored versions as highly.
🪙 Companies object to tokenization: Lost in the rapidly advanced effort to tokenize equities is that companies may want their shares tokenized, and now Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Verizon are among those who have objected to their shares trading on the proposed new OKX - ICE 24/7 tokenized stock exchange.
📆 LOOKING FORWARD
This week: Paris Art Week, with major auctions at Sotheby’s and Christie’s on Thursday and Friday; The WNBA Finals between the Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream continue.
Today: NAHB homebuilder confidence index released.
Tuesday: The NBA regular season kicks off with a matchup between the defending champion New York Knicks and LeBron James’ new team, the Philadelphia 76ers; Housing starts and building permit reports released; Pending home sales report released.
Friday: The World Series begins with Game 1 in Milwaukee; Consumer sentiment index released; Heritage’s Fall Sports Catalog auction kicks off.
