*as of 10/13; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, GOLD

U.S. private equity activity rebounded in Q3, as deal value rose by 21% in Q3 and deal count rose 5.9%. There were 28 deals of $1 billion or more, though much of the gain in activity came from middle-market deals. Exit activity also hit the highest level this year in both value and count, leading to greater liquidity in the ecosystem. Fundraising, though, is on pace to be the lowest since 2020 and smaller firms are disproportionately feeling the squeeze.

➨ TAKEAWAY: The current interest rate environment is also a concern for the asset class, as higher borrowing costs are likely to put a damper on deal activity. Expect Q4 to see fewer acquisitions and a decline in exit activity, as managers exercise more caution, particularly with fundraising drying up. Our latest podcast episode with Star Mountain Capital’s Brett Hickey looked in-depth at the lower middle-market sector.

Vincent CEO Eric Cantor is joined by The Champion Fund co-founders Marques Colston and Nick Edwards to discuss the booming sports asset class, investment opportunities, and how everyday investors can access this exclusive market. The panel dives into TCF's investment into Premier League club Ipswich Town FC and shares insights on valuation, deal analysis, and future trends in sports investing.

🏡 Existing home sales tick up: According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose 1.5% in September, but remain down 2.2% year-over-year, as September’s gain was largely due to August’s numbers being the lowest of the year. The recent rise in mortgage rates also makes it likely that numbers the rest of the year will decrease.

📉 Small business optimism fades: The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points last month to 97.9, just below the 52-year average of 98.0. The Uncertainty Index rose one point to 90, significantly above the historical average of 68, with business owners citing persistent inflation along with labor quality and availability as the biggest issues.

🏢 Office market stabilizing: The U.S. office market had its fifth straight quarter of positive net absorption, and the national vacancy rate dropped by 25 basis points to a still-high 19.8%. Supply is also constrained, as only 7.1 million square feet of new office space has been completed so far this year, around 20% of the historical average.

🪙 NFT marketplace shutters: Blur, once the leading Ethereum NFT marketplace with more than $1.4 billion in monthly trading volume in 2023, will shut down next month as its volume dropped more than 99.5% to only $7 million.

🤖 Houthis using Claude: The Yemeni rebels responsible for deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia used Anthropic’s AI bot Claude to help them with their weapons systems and missiles - not exactly the kind of PR Anthropic is looking for as it prepares for a potential November IPO.

👛 Record-breaking coin auction: The highest-graded 1792 Half Disme, the first ever circulated coin produced by the U.S. Mint, sold for a record-breaking $2.93 million at Heritage Auctions, more than double the previous record set in 2013.

In a down week for crypto, the biggest decline in the top-100 tokens by market cap belonged to M, the native token of MemeCore, a Layer-1 blockchain designed for memecoins. It is down 27% in the past month, and 58% in the past year, and has collapsed since its all time high above $4.30 in April. Not coincidentally, the 2nd biggest decline belonged to Pump.fun’s native token, which also dropped nearly 20%. Pump.fun is a Solana memecoin generator, and the value of its token is also directly tied to the popularity of memecoins. Generally, when the crypto market falls, the first tokens to get sold off are memecoins and related coins, and they see greater dips than the market as a whole. For what it’s worth, the MarketVector memecoin index is down 55.7% over the past year.