Alternative Investing Report - January 6, 2025

*as of 1/5; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Pending home sales rose 2.2% in November, marking four consecutive months of increases and hitting the highest level since February 2023. While the Midwest, South and West all saw monthly gains, the Northeast actually experienced a decline, though all four regions are up on a year-over-year basis. However, more recent data from Redfin shows a 1.1% year-over-year decline in pending sales based on December numbers.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While the upward trend of home sales shows that Americans are getting more used to a world with higher mortgage rates, the recent decline in pending sales is likely because of mortgage rates’ recent spike back towards 7%. With rates unlikely to drop much in 2025, potential buyers and sellers are slowly coming off the sidelines. The percentage of homeowners with mortgage rates under 5% dropped from 85.5% in 2022 to 73.3% in Q3. This will reduce the “lock-in” effect, where people who have low fixed mortgage rates feel they cannot afford to move. The market will slowly thaw as 6%-7% mortgages will no longer seem as high to people not already

Next Monday January 13 at 11 AM ET - join us for our next pre-IPO briefing covering the American space technology giant SpaceX. Vincent’s Slava Rubin and Sacra’s Jan-Erik Asplund will discuss the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and much more. Presented by UpMarket.

💵 Private equity 2024 breakdown: Global PE deal value rose by 22% in 2024, while total deal count was up 12%, and perhaps more importantly, exit value was up 20% worldwide and 50% in the U.S.

💰 Gold price forecast: Wall Street analysts expects the price of gold to rise by 7% in 2025, a solid return, but well below the 27% gain the precious metal saw in 2024.

🎨 Must-see 2025 exhibitions: This list of 11 highly-anticipated museum exhibitions includes sculptor Ruth Asawa’s career retrospective and painter Jenny Saville’s first major U.K. museum show. Major museum exhibits can boost interest in artists and demand for their artwork.

🤖 OpenAI’s capital needs: After losing $5 billion in 2024 on $3.7 billion in revenue the AI startup is moving towards a new for-profit structure and needs to “raise more capital than we’d imagined,” so expect another giant fundraising round in 2025.

🎵 Elvis memorabilia lawsuit: The legendary musician’s estate is suing GWS Auctions, alleging that $2 million worth of memorabilia was illegally put up for auction in November.

🚀 VC’s 40 under 40: Venture Capital Journal’s list of rising stars includes 24 women and 16 men, with 35 located in the U.S., 13 in Silicon Valley, and 10 in New York City.

🪙 Do Kwon pleads not guilty: The founder of Terraform Labs was just extradited to the U.S. from Montenegro and is facing a nine-count indictment for his part in the collapse of the TerraUSD stablecoin.

Tuesday: 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) begins in Las Vegas; The TGL Golf League, backed by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, launches its debut season.

Thursday: Day of mourning for President Jimmy Carter, markets will be closed.

Friday: U.S. jobs report released; Consumer sentiment report released.

Saturday: Memory Lane’s Winter Rarities auction, including a number of highly-graded 1933 Goudey Babe Ruth cards.