Alternative Investing Report - January 30, 2025

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*as of 1/29; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

The Federal Reserve elected to keep interest rates the same, citing uncertainty over recent inflation readings and a strong job market that does not need the stimulation a rate cut would bring. Chair Jerome Powell also said the Fed would be monitoring which of President Trump’s policies would be enacted, with tariff, immigration and regulatory policies potentially affecting future decisions. Trump blasted the Fed’s decision and is likely to continue to try and pressure them to lower rates.

➨ TAKEAWAY: While this decision did not come as a surprise, with traders and betting markets putting the chances of no change above 95%, the public equities markets all closed with losses. The next meeting comes in March, with the consensus prediction again being no change. Investors should continue to operate as if no more rate cuts are imminent and this interest rate environment will be the status quo for the time being.

Vincent CEO Eric Cantor and Sacra co-founder Jan-Erik Asplund looked at Anthropic, the American AI startup behind LLM model Claude. They talked about the company’s rapid growth, the competitive landscape in AI, and how the recent emergence of DeepSeek could impact Anthropic's trajectory.

Last week’s Outsider Art auction at Christie’s saw $1.8 million in sales, a decline from last year’s $2.5 million total, but a number of lots outperformed their estimates. Outsider art generally refers works by artists with no formal training, and for better or worse, often refers to queer, disabled and minority artists. This category is one that investor and collectors looking for value plays in the art market could turn to more often in 2025.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Outsider art is often appreciated by forward-looking collectors trying to find the next big things, and the results at these auctions can be instructive. Artists who get attention or whose work sells for well above estimates could be on the verge of a breakout. Consider that outsider art is only considered “outsider” until it hits the mainstream - blue-chip artists such as Jean-Michel Basquiat and Banksy were once considered outsiders. For those interested, the Outsider Art Fair opens in New York on February 27 and runs until March 2.

🍷 Fine wine investing guide: Keeping a collection with a diversity of regions, storing your wines in a professionally managed facility, and ensuring your bottles are insured are a few of the tips from this guide on how to invest in wine.

🚀 Helion fundraise: The fusion power startup raised $425 million at a $5.2 billion valuation, and is aiming to build the world’s first fusion power plant by 2028 to supply Microsoft with electricity.

🏡 Fewer potential sellers: Only 19% of homeowners are considering selling their home in the next three years, down from 22% at the beginning of the year, primarily because the percentage of urban homeowners intending to sell has dropped from 29% to 23%.

💵 PE secondaries booming: The volume on the private equity secondary market hit a record $162 billion in 2024, a 45% rise over 2023, as more investors are selling their private equity stakes to get liquidity.

🪙 Trump media launches fintech platform: Truth.Fi will focus on crypto and customized ETFs, as Trump-affiliated businesses continue to move into the digital assets space.

⚾ Ohtani card potential record: A 1 of 1 2024 baseball card signed by Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is being auctioned next month with a $600,000 estimated value, which would set a new record for any Ohtani card.

Another day, another new AI model gets released that could disrupt the market. Late last week it was DeepSeek shocking the industry, and now, the Chinese tech company Alibaba released a new version of its Qwen 2.5 model that it claims is even better than DeepSeek’s V3 and OpenAI’s GPT-4o. It’s not just American AI companies that are feeling the heat from DeepSeek, but domestic competitors as well. Given the number of massive tech companies and well-capitalized AI startups competing for the same market, expect the leading model to continue to change, which will lead to a lot of short-term swings in the markets.