Alternative Investing Report - January 14, 2025

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*as of 1/13; Sources: S&P, BTC, FTSE, DJRE, CL50

Bitcoin fell below $90,000 for the first time in two months, dipping 20% below its $108,000 all-time high before rebounding closer to $95,000 by the end of the day. Ethereum and Solana are both down 13% in the past week, while an index of major memecoins is down nearly 25% in the same timeframe. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently reiterated his anti-Bitcoin stance, saying “Bitcoin itself has no intrinsic value…I just don't feel great about Bitcoin.”

➨ TAKEAWAY: The markets dipped after last week’s strong job reports seemed to preclude a Federal Reserve rate cut anytime soon, leading to a sell-off of riskier assets. Crypto is now much more correlated to the rest of the market than ever before, with a growing amount of institutional money involved, and has been responsive to macroeconomic conditions. There could be good news on the horizon, with incoming President Trump’s inauguration next week, as he is expected to issue a number of pro-crypto executive orders on his first day of office. On the other hand, there is widely expected to be a “inauguration bump,” so some of that could already be priced in.

Vincent founder Slava Rubin and Sacra co-founder Jan-Erik Asplund had a wide-ranging discussion about Elon Musk’s SpaceX, the most valuable private company in the world. They talked about the company’s growth, strengths, challenges, IPO prospects, and answered investor questions.

Office vacancies in the top 50 metro areas of the U.S. hit 20.4% in 2024, a new record high, as the asset class continues to feel the effects of hybrid and remote work. As such, it is not surprising that new construction in 2024 remained well below pre-pandemic levels with only 17.5 million square feet completed. Conversions to residential are starting to increase and demolitions have also risen since 2022, further restricting supply.

➨ TAKEAWAY: Remote work has led to what looks to be a permanent reduction in demand for office space, though a number of major companies are starting to mandate a full return-to-office, like JP Morgan and Amazon. Demand for high-quality workspace has also increased, leading to a shortage of the most desirable office space. With demand rising and supply declining, expect vacancy rates to gradually tick down, which could lead to further investment opportunities at the high-end of the market.

🤖 Blaize going public: The AI chip startup, which has previously raised $335 million in funding, is going public today on Nasdaq in a SPAC deal that will value the company at $1.2 billion. This offering is happening despite the company posting a $87.5 million net loss on just $3.8 million of revenue in 2023, as it hopes the AI theme entices investors.

📊 Potential rate hike?: After a stronger than expected jobs report, the projected date of the next Fed rate cut have shifted from March to June, with Bank of America analysts now seeing a rate hike as more likely than a cut.

🚀 Blue Origin launch delayed: In a setback for the Jeff Bezos-founded space company, the launch of its highly anticipated New Glenn rocket was postponed to Thursday.

💵 PE fundraising to slow in 2025: After a 27% decline in private equity fundraising in 2024, Pitchbook is projecting another significant decline in 2025, due to a lack of exit activity, fewer fund launches, and long fund closing timelines.

🏡 Divvy Homes sold: The rent-to-own startup once valued at $2 billion but which has been plagued by issues the past few years, was “sold for parts” to a division of Brookfield Properties that owns and manages more than 10,000 single-family homes.

🎨 AI authentication merger: Hephaestus Analytical, an AI art authentication startup, is merging with art analysis firm ArtDiscovery, combining AI technology with scientific analysis to create a more rigorous authentication process.

The Woodpecker Trail Oliver Farm, home of award-winning olive oil, is on the market for the first time in more than 170 years. Located in Glennville, GA - a little over an hour west of Savannah - the 282-acre property has 11,000 olive trees, two barns, an office building, and a bottling room. It also has a 1,676 square-foot, 3-bed, 2 bath farmhouse for the future operators to live in. All of this can be yours for the listing price of $6.65 million.